1 June 2019 FT — Articles to Read

1 June 2019

 

Question: according to MSN: News, what is the average length of stay in jail?

 

Slowdown fears rise on Trump threat to hit Mexico with tariffs – Pg. 1

–          The president’s decision to subject Mexican imports to a 5% levy on June 10, with potential increases to follow, threatened to sap economic momentum and corporate confidence in the US and worldwide, coming on top of worsening trade relations between the US and China

–          Global stock markets slid on the news, compounding the biggest pullback since the market volatility of last year that was seen them shed more than 6% in May

–          The Mexican peso dropped as much as 3.3% as recession fears rose in a country that sends 80% of its exports to its northern neighbor.  As investors sought safety in government bonds, Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield fell as much as 2.6bps to minus 0.020% – its lowest level since German reunification in 1990,…

–          In a further sign of the trade tensions, China announced it would establish a list of foreign companies that harm the “legitimate rights and interests” of Chinese groups

–          The US economy grew at a 3.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, but was set to slow in the second quarter

 

Crowding prompts anger over Everest management – Pg. 2

–          While UK-based Jagged Globe charges upwards of 45,490 (sterling) per person for an Everest expedition, new, mainly Nepalese groups have undercut the market in the past five years, charging as little as $25,000 to take dozens to the top at a time

–          Some operators have clients who only learn how to use their equipment at the foot of the mountain

–          Currently, almost anyone can climb Everest.  A permit costs $11,000, there is no limit on how many are issued and no mountaineering experience is required

–          (Prof Note: I proudly summited Kilimanjaro.  I believe the price, 10 years in the past, was $5,000.  The peak is about 10,000 feet below Everest and Kilimanjaro’s peak is a hair under 20,000 feet.  Personally, I have felt the altitude at Lake Titicaca (12,500 feet) and, while I was slothy, navigated Cuzco and Machu Picchu without much difficulty.  If you are healthy, I highly recommend Kilimanjaro, if for nothing else, to experience the limits of one’s own body.  I remember resting at Stella Point which is 600’ from Uhuru peak (summit of Kilimanjaro).  I sat down to rest.  When it was time to get up I realized I could not get up.  The Porter asked if I wanted to forgo Uhuru Peak (the summit).  No way I was not making it to the summit.  With ZERO loss of pride, I started to crawl.  The porter helped me up and I realized I could only raise my foot, i.e. could not create forward motion.  For the next 600’ I would raise one foot and the porter pushed me forward upon it creating forward motion.  I raised the other foot and we continued this way for 600’, finally making the summit.  It is absolutely a life experience worth having.  For me, less so for the accomplishment of the summit (though that is wonderfully prideful) but more so to understand human limits.)

 

Fed nominee hits at bank’s Soviet-style market power –Pg. 4

–          Judy Shelton….has attacked the central bank for wielding undemocratic, Soviet-style powers over markets and suggested it should not even be in the business of setting interest rates

–          Ms Shelton did postdoctoral research on the Soviet economy at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution

–          …possible nomination suggests that Mr Trump is in no mood for a less controversial pick for the US central bank, and wants a disruptive candidate to argue for unorthodox policies within the Fed

–          She said the Fed should continue to reduce its balance sheet below the $3.5tn target set by Jay Powell, …

–          She also said the Fed had become so influential that it unnaturally drove investment decisions and affected financial markets

–          Ms Shelton has long been sympathetic to the gold standard, which the US abandoned in the 1970s in favour of a flexible exchange rate for the dollar

–          Her bit dream is a new Bretton Woods-style conference….to reset the international monetary system, replacing the current regime, mostly based on floating currencies

 

Brazil and Mexico contract as low commodity prices take toll – Pg. 4

–          Latin America’s two biggest economies contracted in the first quarter of 2019, setting the stage for a gloomy year in a region trying to recover from low commodity prices and weak productivity

–          Brazil’s GDP fell 0.2% in the first three months….

–          In Mexico, the region’s second-biggest economy, a weak service sector dragged growth down, also by 0.2%

–          …Venezuela falling deeper into one of the biggest slumps in Latin American history as US sanctions and a collapse in oil production bite, ….

–          Brazil’s contraction raised fears that Latin America’s biggest economy could return to recession less than three years after emerging from a deep downturn

 

US anti-abortion laws test CEOs’ activist reputation – Pg. 12

–          Georgia’s Republican governor on May 7 signed into law a ban on abortions after a doctor can detect a foetal heartbeat, which can be about six weeks into a pregnancy.  Critics have argued that women are often unaware they are pregnant at that stage.  The law would take effect in 2020 if it survives court challenges

–          (Prof Note: I have attempted to have two discussions with two highly intellectual groups/people on this subject.  The result of both attempts was that this is a highly emotionally charged issue and that it was safer that I simply have no opinion.  I am saddened by this.  The question I have posed to both sets (note: I posed a question; I did NOT take a position) is, “If the woman has the right to abort, why does the man not have the right to financially “abort” his financial responsibility in cases of consensual intimacy?  Would this not create a truer equality for both sexes on this issue?”  I want to be clear, I have NOT stated a position, I know it is best for me not to have one (and safer), but I really would like to better understand the issue my question raises.  Again, stated with complete fear and do not wish any reprisals, I am NOT stating any personal position, but am stating an intellectual curiousity.)

 

Investors take flight from riskier US corporate debt as trade war fears grow – Pg. 15

–          The average yield premium, or spread, above Treasuries on high-yield bonds has soared 68bps to 4.5% in May, reflecting rising perceptions of risk.  The US junk bond market is on course for its first month of negative returns this year

 

Answer: 25 days

31 May 2019 FT — Articles to Read

31 May 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: News, How many people go to jail per year?

 

Brazil’s shrinking economy sparks fears of quick return to recession – Pg. 1

–          Brazil’s economy shrunk in the first quarter of this year,…

–          The development – marking the first contraction since 2016 – has raised fears that Brazil could return to recession less than two years after emerging from a brutal years-long downturn

–          More than 13m people in Brazil are currently unemployed.  About 55m people, more than a quarter of the population, now live below the poverty line, up from 52m in 2016

–          Official government data yesterday showed a contraction in GDP of 0.2% in the first quarter

–          Economic growth for the year is now forecast at 1.2%, down from an estimated 2.6% in January

 

JPMorgan pays record settlement in parental leave win for ‘Wall Street dads’ – Pg. 1

–          …bank’s failure to uphold policies giving men and women equal access to parental leave

–          …16-week paid leave JPMorgan offers primary caregivers

–          The case was an embarrassment for JPMorgan, which holds itself up as a progressive, family-friendly employer with policies more generous than most rivals, and last year increased non-primary caregiver leave to six weeks at full pay.  The bank argued that its policies were meant to be gender neutral but were incorrectly applied

 

Fed to consider rate cut if outlook darkens – Pg. 2

–          Growth remains robust, with the economy expanding at a revised annualized pace of 3.1% in the first quarter, …but other countries have slowed and US inflation has undershot the Fed’s 2% goal despite low unemployment

–          Since the Fed’s April 30 and May 1 policy meeting, the White House has announced increases in tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports, prompting a response by Beijing.  The US has also unsettled markets with its actions against Huawei, the Chinese telecoms equipment maker

 

Corn reaches three-year high after US floods – Pg. 19

–          Prospects of a collapse in US corn production due to widespread flooding in the country’s corn belt has led to prices of the grain soaring to levels not seen in three years

–          The International Grains Council has cut its forecast for the 2019-20 global corn crop to 1.12bn tonnes, a 1% decline from the year before and down 7m tonnes from last month

–          Winter wheat, which has rallied one-fifth this month, is also suffering from the wet conditions – 61% of crops are in “good” or “excellent” condition…

 

Answer: 10.6 million

30 May 2019 FT — Articles to Read

30 May 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: News, what is the median bail for felonies?

 

Mueller passes baton to Congress for any action against Trump- Pg. 1

–          Robert Mueller, who investigated Donald Trump and Russian meddling in the 2016 US election, has passed responsibility for any further action against the present to Congress

–          The special counsel said the US required “a process other than the criminal justice system” to accuse a sitting president of wrongdoing

–          Mr Mueller said indicting the present was never an option and reiterated that his report, first published in April, did not exonerate or accuse Mr Trump of obstructing justice

–          “A president cannot be charged with a federal crime while he is in office”

 

Venezuela’s 130,000% inflation reflects rocketing price of economic meltdown – Pg. 1

–          …GDP contracted 22.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018 – the most recent period for which figures were available

–          GDP has fallen very quarter in Venezuela since the start of 2014, and by at least 10% year-on-year in every quarter since the end of 2015,…

 

Investors raise bets on Fed making two rate cuts as trade war worries intensify – Pg. 19

–          Investors have increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates not once but twice this year to counter concerns about slowing global economic growth that have been inflamed by the worsening US-China trade war

–          The probability that the central bank will cut rates two or more times by the end of 2019 rose above 48%….

–          Concerns over the growth outlook have been roiling the bond market, helping push the US government’s borrowing costs lower as investors sought out the relative safety of Treasuries

–          The signal from the widely watched US yield curve, whose inversion has been a reliable indicator of past recessions, also intensified investor nervousness on Tuesday because long-dated Treasury yields slid further below yields on shorter dated government debt

–          The difference between three-month and 10-year Treasury yields dropped as low as minus 13bp, its lowest level since 2007.  This measure of the yield curve has turned negative before every US recession of the past 50 years

 

Answer: $10,000

29 May 2019 FT — Articles to Read

29 May 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: News: Are most people in jail convicted of felonies or misdemeanors?

 

Betting on a ‘water battery’ – Pg. 7

–          Pumped hydro is a century-old technology, which provides about 95% of worldwide energy storage linked to electricity grid systems

–          It works by using excess or cheap power at off-peak times to pump water into raised water basins, from where it can be released to generate electricity when demand and prices are highest.  The need for storage is expected to accelerate massively with the greater use of renewables – and while there has been a lot of hope surrounding lithium batteries, pumped hydro is expected to remain the back-bone of the renewables revolution

–          Just over a fifth of Australia’s electricity is now generated by renewables

–          Over the past two years it has deployed wind and solar generation up to five times faster than the US, China or the EU on a per capita basis

–          In the 1960s and 1970s, pumped hydro was typically deployed by publicly-owned utilities alongside nuclear or coal power stations, which provided low-cost electricity to pump water up hills at night during off-peak periods that could then be used when consumer demand spiked.  But as companies deploy wind and solar energy on to national grids pumped storage is enjoying a renaissance as a means to help stabilize electricity systems

–          Lithium-ion batteries, can, however respond to outages within milliseconds and are ideal for preventing the outages seen in 2017

 

Charities reap huge Bezos windfall – Pg. 11

–          The Giving Pledge was started by Mr Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates in 2010, and each year they invite more wealthy individuals to join

–          Mr Harding said that he and his wife Claudia did not wish to pass on their “unexpected level of wealth” to their children, saying, “Our admiration for our ideals and aims of the pledgers has thus made it easy for us to sign up”

–          (Prof Note: In physics there is no such thing as perpetual motion.  There is drag and inefficiencies that prevent perpetual motion.  In finance there is not just perpetual motion but, what I call, growing acceleration.  It is possible to accumulate more than one can spend and have it grow at an increasing rate.  Great article here when I get time…)

 

Norway pension fund drops drink and gaming investments in ‘sin stock’ purge – Pg. 19

–          Norway’s largest pension fund will divest from companies that rely on alcohol and gaming ot drive sales in a push to purge its portfolio of so-called sin stocks

–          The decision follows moves by other large institutional investors to scrutinize more closely environmental, social impact and governance standards in their portfolios

 

Answer: Neither!  Most are awaiting trial!