Author: Roger Staiger

2 July 2018

Question: According to “The Motley Fool”, what are 4 thongs you must do before you retire?

MBAs opt for a full-time job and a start-up on the side – Pg. 10

–          Many top business schools on the FT’s annual global MBA ranking list have reported a dip in start-up activity this year, particularly in the US

–          A rise in the number of students setting up businesses as a side project…(Prof Note: The Hustle is a four count.  It is danced in a line and can be syncopated for that added flare!  However, hitch kicks are a no-no…too Latin!  Straight hips with minimal rolling, balls of feet firmly planted, ladies right hand near waist with elbow firmly at side.  Dare I say it, I DARE!  The man leads!  Do the hustle!!!)

–          At many schools, there is growing interest in studying entrepreneurship as a discipline

Renminbi’s sharp decline stokes currency war fears – Pg. 13

–          China’s currency suffered its largest monthly fall against the dollar in June, sparking concern that Beijing is prepared to use devaluation as a weapon in an escalating trade war with the US

–          …the renminbi weakened 3.3% against the dollar in June, the worst single-month decline since China established its foreign exchange market in 1994

–          The renminbi had been an island of strength earlier this year, even as the dollar strengthened.  The declines were partly a catch-up effect….

First ‘integrity rating’ agency launches – Pg. 15

–          A former US government counter-terrorism expert and an emerging markets healthcare lawyer are to launch a rating agency for conduct risk, as the world’s banks struggle to avoid doing business with terrorists, drug dealers and other organized criminals

–          Sigma uses artificial intelligence to sift data from a range of public information and synthesise it into a zero-to-100 score, which translates into a business integrity rating from AAA down to C, similar to the scale used by the credit rating agencies

Answer: (1) Create a new budget (Prof Note: I will work with retirees and always suggest that married couples have three budgets, i.e. one together, one for spouse A (Spouse B has passed), and one for Spouse B (Spouse A has passed); (2) Assess your savings (Prof Note: Assess quantity, quality, and risk profiles); (3) Understand your healthcare needs (Prof Note: Do a realistic assessment); (4) Figure out how you’ll spend your time (Prof Note: Remember that retirement is an equation and NOT an age, i.e. Passive Income >= Active Expense.  Retirement allows one to be the person they want rather than the person they must be to survive.  On Nevis the expats have a bridge club, they play the course weekly, they gripe about politics, etc.  Most, despite the griping, are very happy.  Also consider where you want to spend your retirement….location matters!)

30 June 2018

Question: According to MSN:Lifestyle, what are 61 of the Best Things in Life that aren’t available to buy?

Rothschilds discover what’s in a name as family ends legal fight over moniker – Pg. 1

–          Yesterday’s agreement between Rothschild & Co, the Anglo-French parent of Rothschild & Cle, and Edmond de Rothschild would bar both groups from using the Rothschild name by itself in branding.  Instead, they will use their full names to build future business and both vowed to “work together to protect the family name in the banking sector”

–          (Prof Note: Family name is important!  It can take generations to build a “brand” and moments to destroy it.  The greatest gift a family can provide the next generation, in my opinion, is a positive family name.)

Bond markets send signals of a looming recession – Pg. 9

–          Interest rates on two-year Treasury bills, known as the yield, have been climbing since late 2016.  But the yield on the 10-year has increased far less

–          As a result, the difference between the two, known as the term spread, has compressed to less than 40bps.  In trader parlance, that means “the yield curve has been flattening”, which has previously been a strong predictor of recessions

–          US inflation is running at around the Fed’s 2% target, labour shortages are emerging, some fiscal stimulus is still in the pipeline, and Fed policymakers have been quite clear that market volatility will not divert them from their plans

–          Given the strong Fed signals, why aren’t long-term rates rising well?

–          ….ECB and the BoJ are continuing their quantitative easing

–          What then are the possible sources of an adverse hit to growth?….Fed over-tightening….tightening liquidity….

–          …$10tn of corporate debt will come due in the next five years

–          ….talk of a full blown trade war might be another reason investors fear a recession

–          American grievances include state aid to Chinese companies, pressure by the state on overseas companies to share technology if they want access to Chinese markets, and the state condoning, if not aiding, intellectual property theft

–          China is clearning up its financial system, an immensely complicated task given the debt that has built up.  Growth has slowed, the cost of riskier loans has been rising as have defaults.  The Chinese authorities are working to spread losses across the system, but this needs to be managed carefully to avoid panic.  If China is caught in a trade war while it is still restructuring its financial system, ,its difficulties could spread abroad

Dow shake-up results in contrasting fates for GE and Walgreens – Pg. 11

–          Since joining the Dow, Walgreens shares have fallen 11.2%.  GE, on the other hand, has gained 8.5% and the Dow has slipped 0.2% over the same period

Answer: (1) Taking your shoes off after a long day; (2) Dancing to a song you love; (3) Having friends that are always there for you; (4) Finding something you thought you had lost; (5) Sleeping in; (6) Swinging (Prof Note: I have “Gulliver” benches all about Nevis…made for napping.  These are swinging benches, 7’ long and 3’ wide with a built-in cup holder); (7) Being home for the holidays; (8) A warm summer day (Prof Note: just pray you are not in southern Maryland where the Deer flies are the size of a small car!); (9) Listening to public radio (Prof Note: Gotta love original thought!); (10) Smelling flowers (Prof Note: Is anything so sweet?!); (11) Lazy Sunday mornings; (12) Staying true to yourself (Prof Note: Find your happy place; the place that allows you to be YOU); (13) The smell of fresh-baked cookies; (14) Using a library card; (15) Singing along to your favourite song; (16) Kisses; (17) The smell of clean sheets; (18) Wearing your favourite pair of shoes (Prof Note: or none at all!); (19) The sound of rain (Prof Note: I can actually watch the storms approach from VA across the Potomac.  Then they thunder and pound when they arrive in MD); (20) Falling in love; (21) Writing a journal (Prof Note: Thank all of you for my voice!); (22) Playing in the snow; (23) Letting go of your grudges; (24) Feeling the breeze out of the car window (Prof Note: Willy and I are SO into the jeep wave!); (25) Exploring a place you have never been to; (26) Believing in yourself (Prof Note: “You is kind.  You is smart.  You is important.”); (27) Watching a sunset (Prof Note: Almost every night I am waiting for the green flash); (28) Jumping into a lake; (29) Rearranging your furniture; (30) Going for a great run; (31) Feeling the ocean on your feet (Prof Note: I won’t tell you where but I will show you where I sit for sunsets on Nevis in a warm pool of ocean water within rocks.  Come join me!); (32) Looking at your old pictures; (33) Seeing the leaves turn colours in the Fall; (34) Laying in the sand; (35) Knowing that someone supports your dreams (Prof Note: I support all of your dreams.  I LOVE hearing of your successes…thank you for sharing!); (36) Going for a walk; (37) Feeling healthy; (38) Getting excited for a coming event; (39) Stargazing (Prof Note: Come join me in So MD.  If you can brave the Deer flies we can sit by the fire and gaze upon the constellations); (40) Holding hands; (41) Reuniting with an old friend; (42) Hugs; (43) Getting recognized for good work at your job; (44) Feeling love and support from your family (Prof Note: This should be unconditional); (45) Overcoming a challenge; (46) Time flying by because you’re enjoying yourself; (47) Laughter; (48) Doing outdoor yoga; (49) Knowing you can trust someone; (50) Feeling the breeze in your hair; (51) Sunbathing (Prof Note: the warm sun upon your face just forces a smile! J); (52) Funny memories from your younger days; (53) Riding a bike (Prof Note: Just yesterday I switched out the pedals on my bike); (54) Completing your New Year’s resolutions; (55) The sound of a book being cracked open; (56) Discovering a hobby you’re passionate about; (57) Surprising someone you love; (58) Organizing a messy space; (59) Swimming until your toes get wrinkly; (60) Celebrating an anniversary; (61) Living life to the fullest.  (Prof Note: One of the aspects I am learning in life is that the best things are truly free, e.g. friendships, sunsets, experiences, storytelling, etc.  It took me most of my life to realize this.  I had to achieve financial and career goals before I allowed myself to just enjoy life.  The sooner one learns to appreciate the simple things in life, the more sunsets, friendships and experiences one can have!)

29 June 2018

 Question: According to Business Insider on MSN, what are 6 things people who are good with money always splurge on?

 Slowing domestic demand puts Beijing to the test – Pg. 2

–       China exports have remained strong this year despite the rhetoric, increasing 13% in the year to May against 8% growth in 2017

–       But fixed-asset investment – a drier of China growth that includes spending on new buildings, machinery and infrastructure – grew at its slowest annual pace since at least 1995 in the first five months of this year.  Retail sales rose at their slowest pace since 2003

–       …Shanghai Composite has dropped 10% in June

–       China’s leadership has committed to prioritizing risk control and growth quality over short-term stimulus, after increasingly shrill warnings from watchdogs such as the IMF and party leaders about the risks of rising debt and wasteful investment

 Big deals drive M&A to $2.5tn high – Pg. 11

–       Global dealmaking has reached $2.5tn in the first half of 2018, breaking the all-time high for the period and underscoring the intensity of mergers and acquisitions activity in spite of increasingly bitter geopolitical tensions

–       The record-breaking pace of dealmaking stands in contrast to a looming trade war sparked by President Donald Trump of the US against China and renewed fears of political instability in the Eurozone, particularly in Italy and Spain, that have shaken markets

–       Globally, companies signed 79 deals above $5bn, surpassing the previous year to date record set in 2007, and a record 35 deals above $10bn

 Answer: (1) Products that earn you more money (Prof Note: The example is a computer and I acknowledge I spend a lot on IT equipment, including computers.  Recently I have begun purchasing difficult-to-find data); (2) Services that save you time (Prof Note: This is only accurate if you have a revenue off-set for your time.); (3) High-value rewards cards (Prof Note: Guilty!  The platinum AMEX is $500 a year BUT provides me access to lounge in Miami.  It pays for itself through free meals that I would be purchasing in airport); (4) High-quality cookware and kitchen appliances (Prof Note: I am not really a “cooker” BUT my blenders for making crushed ice drinks on Nevis could chew up a 2 X 4); (5) Experiences (Prof Note: Absolutely); (6) A few select things that bring you pleasure (Prof Note: This is really individual and must be balanced)

28 June 2018

 Question: What are the 16 most important assets that will increase your net worth?

 Millennial moment – Pg. 7

–          …the strongest growth in America’s millennial population between 2010 and 2015 was not in coastal cities such as New York and LA, but in smaller ones in the south and west

–          The double-digit increase in 10 large metro areas, from Colorado Springs and Denver to San Antonio and Austin, contrasts with Mid-western cities such as Chicago and St. Louis, whose millennial populations rose by less than 1%

–          This millennial migration is largely being driven by affordability (Prof Note: I absolutely believe location and happiness are highly correlated!)

–          Denver’s population has jumped by 100,000 to 704,000 since 2010….

–          Denver’s residential property prices are 50% above their pre-crisis peak, dividing the city into those who bought and have watched their assets appreciate and those wondering if they will ever get on the housing ladder

–          Millennials represent America’s most diverse group: 54% are non-white….

 China’s bear market woes run deeper than trade war with Trump – Pg. 19

–          Blame for the sell-off of China’s stock market has been levelled at the Sino-US trade war but Beijing’s problems have been evident for some time and run much deeper

–          China’s key stock market index, the Shanghai Composite, has now tumbled into bear market territory – a downswing of 20% – for the first time in more than two years, falling another 1.1% yesterday

–          The last major sell-off at the start of 2016 was driven by a clutch of bad economic indicators.  This time….mounting trade war with the US and failing overseas projects, to tighter credit and a pullback from institutional investors….

–          Banks have been forced to recognize many off balance sheet assets.  This has led to a tightening of liquidity in shadow lending channeled through asset management companies

 Answer: (1) Owning your primary residence (Prof Note: Provided the loan product is CPM and it amortizes over time and the equity is consumed through financial devices, e.g. HELOC); (2) Education (Prof Note: I worry that education is no longer a value.  Education comes in many forms and as I age, the more I respect Trades); (3) Vacation homes (Prof Note: Help me Rhonda!  NO!!!!  Unless this is really a rental unit.); (4) Retirement savings; (5) College savings (Prof Note: I believe more care must be placed in majors, i.e. pick the major with a reasonable ROI unless your family is wealthy); (6) Rental real estate; (7) Health; (8) Expertise; (9) Investments; (10) Household items (Prof Note: The article was referencing considering longevity, maintenance and operational costs); (11) Private lending (Prof Note: Do not agree.  Underwriting is not a simple task); (12) Collectibles (Prof Note: Buy smart.  Hess trucks, nice but no value; Buddy L Trains…Amen brother!); (13) Permanent life insurance; (14) Vehicle; (15) Boat (Prof Note: I do not even know how to respond to this!); (16) Private jet (Prof Note: WHAT???  I have looked into NetJet for trips to Nevis.  Note, after doing the research I continue to find myself in the coach section of American Airlines)