18 June 2018 FT — Articles to Read

18 June 2018

Question: According to MSN, why will you age better than your parents?

White House under fire over financial watchdog nomination – Pg. 2

–          Donald Trump plans to nominate a little-known White House official to head a financial watchdog meant to protect consumers in the latest sign of his administration embracing low-profile approach to tackling bank regulation

–          The CFPB was created by the Dodd-Frank reforms after the 2008 financial crisis and was reviled by bankers and Republicans, who blamed it for stifling the financial sector

–          Mr Mulvaney has made big strides in styming some of the CFPB’s former work, temporarily freezing new regulations and reviewing proposed rules, including those on payday lenders

Argentina finance minister defends bailout – Pg. 4

–          Argentina’s Treasury and finance minister insisted that the government would meet tough new targets for lowering the fiscal deficit next year, as he defended the country’s decision to seek a $50bn bailout from the IMF

–          Mr Dujovne pointed to innovative clauses in the deal proposed by Argentina that would allow the government to increase spending on social programmes and relax deficit targets, if necessary, which the fund “welcomed warmly”

–          Such socially sensitive terms contrast with past IMF programmes, not least the fund’s last standby arrangement with Argentina that ended with 2001-02 financial crisis that had grievous consequences and tarnished the multilateral lender’s reputation

Insurance – Pg. 7

–          …after over a decade of crisis AIG is a shadow of its former self, having sold off large chunks of its business

–          …in January it spent $5.6bn on its first purchase in a decade, with a hint of more deals to come, and has used the past 12 months…to recruit a new management team and shake up the way it operates

–          The insurer has been under sustained pressure for most of the past 15 yeasr.  It lurched from Eliot Spitzer’s accounting investigation that resulted in a $1.6bn settlement in 2006 to needing a $185bn government rescue two years ago later just to survive at the height of the financial crisis

–          It has repaid the taxpayer bailout, partly via asset sales.  At its peak, the insurer was worth $240bn and had a triple A credit rating.  It is now worth about a fifth of that and Fitch rates it A-, six notches lower

–          Regulators restricted the company’s growth because they deemed it a “systemically important” financial institution.  But last autumn, as part of the Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda, it rescinded AIG’s “too big to fail” status

–          Part of the reason for the share price fall may be the scaling back of share buybacks, but there are more fundamental problems.  AIG has long avoided the kinds of financial products, such as credit default swaps, that turned toxic in 2008 and led to its bailout.  Today, it is the traditional property and casualty insurance business, which accounts for almost two-thirds of revenues, that is the group’s big anxiety

–          …AIG has struggled to generate a profit from business insurance in the US.  It covers a wide range of commercial risks, from workplace injury claims to clean-up costs from environmental damage…

–          Problematic policies sold by AIG, such as professional liability and workers’ compensation, are known in industry jargon as “long-tail”, leaving the insurer on the hook for potential liabilities years into the future

Meet Canada’s business school trailblazers – Pg. 11

–          Isabelle Bajeux-Besnainou of McGill University says englightened maternity and paternity rules have helped women forge senior careers in Canada (Prof Note: I took a class with Isabelle at GWU.  Huge loss for the school!)

Answer: (1) More exercise (Prof Note: I am down 20lbs and feeling great.  Still obese by U.S. government standards but pushing forward under my own power! J); (2) Better joint replacement; (3) A new attitude toward growing older (Prof Note: I will absolutely tell you that my 40s are better than my 30s which were better than my 20s); (4) Improved cartilage solutions; (5) More plant-based food; (6) Greater understanding of which foods are bad for us (Prof Note: Probably could have done without the gelato last night!); (7) More effective exercise; (8) Making cells young again; (9) Greater understanding of inflammation; (10) More sharing of health data; (11) 3d printing; (12) Tissue engineering; (13) Falling smoking rates; (14) Greater awareness of environmental factors; (15) Fitness trackers; (16) Digital pathology; (17) Greater focus on keeping minds sharper; (18) More interest in healthy foods; (19) Better food production and labeling; (20) HPV vaccination; (21) More cancer-fighting vaccines; (22) Better hygiene; (23) Improved dental hygiene; (24) Smart phone apps; (25)  More socializing later in life; (26) Socializing online; (27) Better blood pressure control; (28) The sequencing of the human genome; (29) Genetic screening; (30) Gene editing and therapy; (31) Targeted cancer therapies; (32) Newer antibiotics; (33) New stroke treatment tool; (34) Clearer ultrasounds; (35) Greater use of meditation; (36) More minimally invasive surgery; (37) Robotic surgery; (38) Natural orifice surgery; (39) Telesurgery; (40) Telehealth; (41) More research on gut bacteria; (42) Better understanding of the role of stress (Prof Note: I actively work to reduce my stress); (43) Wearable health sensors; (44) More personal tech innovation; (45) New ideas about ‘nursing’ homes; (46) More senior living options; (47) More volunteering, more health benefits; (48) Greater understanding of social determinants of health; (49) Recognizing the importance of mental health as we age; (50) Big Data

16 June 2018 FT — Articles to Read

16 June 2018

Question: According to MSN, what is the most expensive hotel in Maryland?

Ex-Trump campaign chief Manafort jailed for alleged witness tampering – Pg. 1

  • The judge noted that her earlier instruction not to commit crimes while on bail was “printed in bold, all caps” (Prof Note: There is much to be said for a quiet, anonymous life)

Central banks correctly go their separate ways – Pg. 8

  • The Fed raised rates and signaled future increases, as expected; the ECB gave details of its impending exit from quantitative easing, while emphasizing that monetary policy would remain loose; the BoJ did nothing
  • Of the three, the BoJ had the easiest task, though not for pleasant reasons. Inflation in Japan continues heavily to undershoot its target; shoing that the tightening in the labour market is a long way from feeding through adequately into pricing power
  • The Fed, having clearly signaled a quarter-point rise in rates, duly delivered
  • ….Jay Powell….was wise to try to dispel notions that he would take a more hawkish approach than Janet Yellen, his predecessor
  • The Fed needs to be alert to the possibility that its tightening will cause significant financial disruption, notably in emerging economies. But the wildest card is the possibility of an escalation of trade conflict among the big economies, driven by Donald Trump, the US president
  • …the most difficult decision was that the ECB, which faced the delicate task of preparing financial markets for its exit from quantitative easing
  • It seems quite likely that equilibrium long-term interest rates have fallen. Moreover, this already very old recovery could run out of steam, or be subject to adverse shocks, at any time.  Still, consumers, investors and businesses should take some comfort that the central banks of the world’s biggest market economies have roughly the right analysis of where they are and how they might react in a downturn

Law firm’s near $200,000 offer kicks off US pay war – Pg. 10

  • US law firms have launched an expensive bidding war for young legal talent after New York-based Millbank Tweed Hadley & McCloy raised the salary it was offering first-year lawyers to $190,000, forcing their competitors to follow suit
  • …raised salaries for those just below partner level to $330,000, took effect this month
  • (Prof Note: Students are always surprised when I state that attorneys rates are negotiable. You can and should negotiate their fees.  Also, track their time and negotiate the bills when they are received.  I often use two law firms on my bigger issues and have each check the other’s invoices.  REFUSE to pay for the $25 copy!  REFUSE to pay for the 2 minute phone call confirming the meeting.  Note the firm most likely rounded the 2 minute call to 6 minutes and then billed you.)

Halcyon days recede as ECB and Fed step back – Pg. 13

  • The withdrawal from fixed income was broad based as investors adapted to a world in which two key central banks were providing less support. European bond funds were particularly hit, losing $2.4bn, the biggest outflow in over a year.  Emerging market bond funds suffered their eighth straight week of outflows, the longest negative streak since 2014
  • Pressure on emerging markets has been exacerbated by investors shifting cash from EM into the US, where rates are becoming more attractive. The returns on short-term 12-month Treasury bills – essentially the equivalent of cash – have climbed to a 10-year high of 2.3% thanks to the Fed’s tightening and a big increase in US government borrowing following tax reform

Answer: Four Seasons, Baltimore

15 June 2018 FT — Articles to Read

15 June 2018

Question: According to MoneyTalksNews, what are 19 things you should make your kids pay for?

ECB moves to pull plug on 2.4tn (euro) stimulus scheme by end of year – Pg. 1

  • The ECB has declared an end to its three-year 2.4tn (euro) stimulus programme, announcing it will wrap up the historic scheme credited with reviving a crisis-wracked Eurozone economy at the end of the year
  • The decision to end the billions of euros in monthly bond purchases, ..was balanced by leaving interest rates at record lows and signaling they were unlikely to rise before September 2019 – later than some analysts had thought
  • The dovish message on rates sent the euro falling sharply, off 1% against the dollar to $1.1672
  • The ECB will gradually taper the stimulus programme through the rest of the year, cutting its monthly asset purchases in half to 15bn (euro) after September before phasing them out entirely
  • The ECB’s move, taken at a meeting in Riga, brings it closer to the US Federal Reserve and the BoE, which have not only ended quantitative easing but also started raising rates

Powell keeps his hawkish side on a leash – Pg. 4

  • ….new chairman vowed to speak in plain English and hold more regular press conferences as he fosters “a public conversation” about what the US central bank is up to
  • …it was clear from the Fed chair’s post-meeting press conference on Wednesday that US rates would continue to be lifted gingerly, but that the Fed’s ultimate destination was uncertain
  • Unemployment is now on tract to drop to only 3.5%, the lowest since the 1960s, even as inflation remains close to the central bank’s 2% target
  • Growth this year is tipped to come in at 2.8%, above the Fed’s 2.1% median prediction a year ago
  • The median forecast from Fed officials puts rates at 3.4% in 2020, well above their estimate for which neutral rate in the longer term, which remained at 2.9%

Fed tweak hints at limits to shrinking balance sheet – Pg. 19

  • …officials raised an interest rate by just 20bps to 1.95%, rather than the customary 25bp increment
  • The change, while technical, might signal that the US central bank will not be able to shrink its balance sheet as much as commonly expected
  • The rate that was tweaked, known as the IOER, or “interest on excess reserves”, is the interest the Fed pays on money held at the central bank, and has until now acted as the upper level of its corridor, while the “overnight reverse repo programme”, or RRP, has been the defacto floor of the Fed funds range
  • The Fed funds rate has been nudged higher by the central bank, slowly draining “excess reserves” from the financial system, which has started to have a bigger than expected impact on short-term money markets
  • The Fed has historically controlled the Fed funds rate by controlling how much money sloshed around in the Fed Funds market. If it wanted to lift interest rates, the central bank sucked funds out by selling Treasuries it has in storage to commercial banks, and taking money out of their accounts at the Fed.  When it lowered interest rates, it pushed money into the market by buying Treasuries from the banks
  • But the Fed’s crisis-fighting quantitative programme entailed buying massive amounts of bonds from banks and crediting their accounts at the Fed with new money – flooding the financial system with surplus Fed funds and forcing the central bank to start using IOER and RRP to control the Fed funds rate
  • …the total assets held by the Fed has slowly dipped from about $4.5tn to $4.32tn as of this week

US tightening heaps pressure on Hong Kong mortgage rates – Pg. 19

  • Short-term interest rates in Hong Kong are rising at a lively pace and reviving concerns among analysts that tightening financial conditions will challenge the highly valued local property market
  • The relentless rise in borrowing costs has stoked concerns about pressure on borrowers as most mortgages in Hong Kong are tied to the floating rate Hibor

Answer: (1) Movies and TV; (2) Designer clothing and accessories; (3) Candy, gum, and other sweet treats; (4) College; (5) Toys and games; (6) Pets and pet supplies; (7) Gifts for friends and family; (8) Cosmetics and beauty supplies; (9) Any items freely available elsewhere; (10) Replacements for items they broke; (11) Donations to charity; (12) Snacks between meals; (13) School events; (14) Phone data plans; (15) Late fees and finance charges; (16) Unnecessary school supplies; (17) Their own rainy-day fund; (18) Yearbooks and spirit wear; (19) Cosmetic piercings and tattoos

14 June 2018 FT — Articles to Read

14 June 2018

Question: What are 10 financial scams to look out for in retirement (according to US News)?

Hawkish Fed lifts rates as Trump tax cuts fuel economic expansion – Pg. 1

  • The Federal Reserve lifted interest rates by a quarter point and signaled that two more increases were likely in 2018 as policymakers gave bullish assessment of the US economy amid accelerating growth and rapid job creation
  • …raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.75% to 2%, in the seventh increase of the current cycle
  • ….interest-rate forecasts….pointed to a total of four rate rises in 2018, followed by another three in 2019
  • The US stock market dipped 0.2% on the news of the intention to raise rates another two times this year, on top of the two that came in March and yesterday
  • The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 3pbs to 2.97%
  • The republicans’ $1.5tn tax cutting package and $300bn federal spending increase have fueled a further pick-up in the US economy, overshadowing global hazards, including the risk of a Trump-induced trade war
  • The rate rise was widely predicted by financial markets given the recent fall in unemployment to just 3.8% and signs that inflation is moving closer to the Fed’s target

Gig workers need better employment protection – Pg. 10

  • …contractual arrangements can be employment contracts in the eye of the law even if they nominally set up a self-employment relationship
  • Who is responsible for the unavoidable risks relating to varying business conditions, accidents and health when work is structured in a flexible way? This is an increasingly pressing question as self-employment grows in importance
  • Since 2001, the share of self-employment in total work has grown from about 12 to more than 15%
  • The function of these three components of policy – clarifying, modernizing, and enforcing the law – is not just to strike the right balance between protecting the vulnerable and facilitating flexible work
  • The rising use of flexible work contracts – and the technology facilitating them – has not only put pressure on labour standards. It also undermines the government’s ability to collect the taxes normally imposed on both sides of more conventional contracts

Foreign lenders urge Fed to relax rules – Pg. 16

  • Foreign banks in the US are stepping up a flight for regulatory relief, complaining they have been unfairly hit by super-charged standards on capital developed under the Obama administration
  • At issue is the topic of “ringfencing”, or the requirement that non-US banks operating in America set up standalone subsidiaries with dedicated capital and liquidity inside them
  • The idea is that such structures would make a troubled bank easier to wind down without burdening taxpayers, while stopping contagion spilling into the rest of the financial system
  • The Basel-based Financial Stability Board has recommended banks have total loss-absorbing capital (TLAC) in their overseas holding companies of at least 75% of what is required in their home country

Answer: (1) Medical scams; (2) IRS phone calls; (3) The grandparent scheme; (4) Fake prescription drugs; (5) Rogue movers; (6) Lottery scams; (7) Investment schemes; (8) Deceptive family members; (9) Spontaneous repair offers; (10) Misuse of your funds