OptQuest: Crystal Ball introduced stochastic modelling. OptQuest takes dynamic inputs to the next level through optimization. Decision variables are introduced providing discrete decisions for optimized results.
Chapter 14
Crystal Ball: Most models view inputs as static numbers. Crystal Ball is an MS Excel add-on that allows the analyst/user to view recognize and quantify inputs as stochastic variables, i.e. having a probability distribution rather than being static. This provides the user an output with a probability distribution best quantifying and demonstrating risk. These slides are an overview of Crystal Ball, the MS Excel add-on.
Simulation: How a simulation is developed, run, and analyzed is important. These slides introduce the correct methodology(ies) when using Crystal Ball.
Chapter 13
Waterfall: Not every investor has the same appetite for risk. Not every investor has the same required timing of their return. As such, cash flows can be financially engineered to provide investors the desired results.
A waterfall in a spreadsheet model that bifurcates cash flows according to risk appetite.
Chapter 12
Financial Statement Analysis: Analyzing the financial statements and forecasting is critical. Ratio analysis and interpretation is often done by analysts. It is critical that the project owner/sponsor understand how lenders and investors analyze these statements.
Financial Statement Overview: The emperor has no clothes! Perhaps the case with Hans Christian Anderson but not with real estate. The “clothing” for real estate are the financial statements which provide a consistent approach to analysis. No asset can be valued without an understanding of the basic financial statements and their differences: (1) Balance Sheet, (2) Income Statement, (3) Statement of Cash Flow, and (4) Statement of Retained Earnings.