Financial Times Blog

The Financial Times Blog is where the P(Gain) team shares our views on everything that affects real estate and capital markets. We observe macroeconomic and geopolitical trends as well as market narratives to provide an eclectic view of the investment landscape. Our views are primarily influenced by both history and current events, as well as academic and practical themes we see as recurring and relevant.

8 June 2019 FT — Articles to Read

8 June 2019

 

Question: What University just shut down its part-time real estate programme?

 

US jobs blow spurs rate-cut debate – Pg. 1

–          The US added just 75,000 jobs in May, a sharp slowdown from a month earlier, intensifying debate on whether the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates to sustain a decade-long expansion and counter drag from trade conflicts

–          …185,000 predicted…

–          The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, matching its lowest level since 1969, but the disappointing hiring data added to worries about the US economy is beginning to lose momentum as trade tussles with China and other partners dent corporate confidence

–          The latest figures and revisions means that monthly job gains have averaged 164,000 in 2019, well below the average gain of 223,000 per month in 2018.  Growth in GDP is also showing signs of slowing, ….annualized growth of 1.5%…

 

Nasa opens space station for business – Pg. 2

–          Nasa is opening up the ISS for tourism and commercial marketing, as the US space agency looks to cut spending on the 20-year-old project and free up more money to explore the moon and beyond

–          Russia already permits private astronauts and other commercial activities on its segment of the ISS

–          Nasa’s latest move throws open the doors of the ISS to private astronauts, manufacturing products that benefit from being made in microgravity environment, and other commercial and marketing activities

–          Use of the facility will come at a hefty price.  Access to the space station’s “regenerative life support and toilet” will cost $11,250/day, with another $22,500/day for crew supplies such as food, air and exercise equipment

–          ….$42 for a kWh of power and $50 to send a gigabyte of data back to earth

–          The Trump administration has been looking for ways to reduce government spending of around $3.5bn a year on the ISS

 

Break-up threat casts shadow over the Valley – Pg. 14

–          …the House judiciary committee announced its own inquiry into whether US antitrust laws need to be tightened up to deal with the large tech groups

–          The possibilities raised most frequently include declaring some markets off-limits to the biggest tech companies, carving out their most powerful platforms to become separate regulated utilities, and unwinding past acquisitions that raised few concerns at the time they were completed

–          Restrict markets they can enter

–          Split off platform businesses

–          Reverse past acquisitions

 

Answer: Johns Hopkins University (Prof Note: I am saddened by this news.  Some of my best mates were met due to this programme.  I was proud to have been part of it from 2006 – 2012 (approximately, long in tooth, do not remember exact dates).  I can only hope that I gave as much to this programme as it gave to me.  It was a true academic programme in its hey day.  I still remember faculty meetings where JG and I would battle over portfolio optimization theory.  There were merits in both of our arguments (I was right, damn it! J)  I am proud to still be lecturing in the full-time, remaining, real estate programme and the business school but admit a part of me died when I learned the part-time programme was to be no more.  MANY great people put much work and effort into this programme.  I am not criticizing the decision made by Hopkins, I was not involved in any of these decisions so have no knowledge, but remain saddened by the news.  To the many that participated in this programme, I thank you for the countless memories shared and for the memories still to be created from the lifetime relationships.)

7 June 2019 FT — Articles to Read

7 June 2019

 

Question: In the U.S., how many individuals are either confined, on probation or parole?

 

Changing weather patters leave Midwest farmers stuck in the mud – Pg. 3

–          …only two-thirds of corn acreage has ben planted and less than half of soyabean acreage, the lowest amounts on record for this late in the season

–          Heavier rainfall between April and June has been the “most impactful climate trend” in the Midwest agriculture over the past three decades…

–          The trend will increase until at least mid-century, leading farmers to “further reduce planting-season workdays due to waterlogged soil”

–          Thunderstorms will become more intense, more frequent and longer-lasting as springtime warms over the central US, …

–          …World Bank and other institutions, yesterday cut its world corn production estimate by 38m tonnes due to US planting problems

–          By early this week just 67% of the nation’s intended corn acreage had been sown, while a normal year planting would be 96% complete, …

–          About 39% of soyabeans were in the ground compared with 79% on average

–          Eligible farmers are also able to file insurance claims on acres they were unable to plant.  Bigger farm operators have tried to adapt to wetter weather by investing in field drainage systems and planting equipment able to seed dozens of rows in the hours that fields are dry

 

India cuts interest rate as growth slows – Pg. 4

–          India’s central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time this year as it seeks to reverse the country’s sharp economic slowdown and also signal the possibility of further easing

–          ….lower the benchmark repo rate by 25bps to 5.75%, bringing it to its lowest level since late 2010

–          …India’s GDP grew at its slowest pace for five years, expanding 6.8% for the full year ending March 30 compared with 7.2% the previous year

–          …the RBI also lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current April-to-March financial year to 7%, down from its previous forecast of 7.2%, with bellwether indicators, such as car sales, pointing to continuing weakness in April and May

 

Legal Services – Pg. 7

–          Fueled by explosive growth in private equity, aggressive poaching of talent and most of all, a business model that resembles a free-wheeling investment bank, Kirkland has become the highest-grossing law firm in the world.  At the end of 2018 revenues stood at $3.7bn, up nearly 20% on the previous year and more than 130% higher than when Mr Hammes took control

–          In the process it elbowed aside its nearest rival, the us FIRM Latham & Watkins, which posted revenues of $3.4bn last year.  After that, the gap widens: the largest global firms, such as Baker McKenzie ($2.9bn) or DLA Piper ($2.8bn), generate big revenues but are far less profitable, while annual turnover at the UK’s “magic circle” elite firms such as Clifford Chance is closer to $2bn

–          The rise reflects the shift in the financial world’s balance of power since the financial crisis.  Investment banks, the dominant force before 2008, have been eclipsed by private equity firms, which now sit on hundreds of billions of dollars of investment funds

–          “Dry powder” in private capital – money raised but not yet spent or committed to deals – hit $2tn at the end of 2018

–          Some find Kirkland’s culture difficult to handle.  Lawyers with proven intellect but who stay inside their offices instead of hustling for new clients are not tolerated, nor is anyone who arrives thinking the new and improved pay is a licence to coast towards retirement

 

Investors are counting on Powell to save them – Pg. 9

–          Wall Street, in other words, thinks the interest rate cycle has turned – with a vengeance

–          American industrial output and capital expenditure, for example, has weakened markedly in recent months, almost certainly as a result of trade wars

 

Investors are mispricing Fed’s next moves on rates, says Goldman and UBS – Pg. 19

–          UBS and Goldman Sachs have warned that expectations for a series of US interest rate cuts this year are overblown,….

–          “Markets now imply that the Fed will cut rates by around 70bps this year and 35bp next year.  We find this excessive,” ….

–          The bank said that, despite a deteriorating outlook, US growth should still track at above 2% this year.  It sees inflation rising to 2% in the coming months

 

Answer: 6.7m