Financial Times Blog

The Financial Times Blog is where the P(Gain) team shares our views on everything that affects real estate and capital markets. We observe macroeconomic and geopolitical trends as well as market narratives to provide an eclectic view of the investment landscape. Our views are primarily influenced by both history and current events, as well as academic and practical themes we see as recurring and relevant.

1 April 2019 FT — Articles to Read

1 April 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average American Savings?

 

Belt and Road property boom stalls as Beijing tightens reins – Pg. 1

–          A global real estate boom fueled by China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative has slowed to a crawl, as Beijing seeks to rein in rogue building projects across the globe

–          So far this year, less than $1bn has been invested in overseas commercial property projects by Chinese developers in designated BRI countries.  That puts this year’s total on tract to be far below last year’s figure of about $14bn and marks another sharp drop from the peak of $23.6bn in 2016….

–          Capital flight has been a key concern among Chinese policymakers.  Overseas investments that require companies to sell renminbi and buy dollars are carefully vetted to make sure the investments are in line with governments policy and not just a means of moving money out of the country

–          Some of the biggest private investors in BRI real estate have been forced to begin selling assets

 

Zuckerberg’s ‘mea culpa’ on regulation fails to check backlash against Big Tech – Pg. 1

–          …his recommendations, which included updating rules concerning online political advertising and rolling out a global framework for data protection, failed to win over privacy advocates and politicians

–          A backlash is growing among the public and government officials against big technology companies, driven by privacy and antitrust concerns

 

Biden denies allegations of inappropriate touching – Pg. 3

–          …denied he made inappropriate sexual advances to a female state lawmaker at a 2014 political campaign stop in Nevada

–          (Prof Note: Why does there need to be touching at all?!  Lets get rid of the handshake and go with the slight bow!)

 

Mobilising political leaders and donors – Pg. 9

–          Reflecting on the lessons learnt Mr Gates, 63, stresses the need for data, systems and holding people to account as he seeks to spur policymakers to tackle big global problems

–          But with the adoption of vaccines sluggish, he has had to place greater focus on management, politics and health systems in his efforts to ensure that new products are also widely used

–          He has increasingly focused on Africa, where the population is projected to double by 2050

–          Mr Gates stresses the need to prioritize.  Initially, he concentrated his philanthropy on global health issues and US domestic education.  He has since diversified, adding agriculture, financial inclusion and more recently exploring international education

 

How freelancers are fighting back in the battle against late payments – Pg. 12

–          On May 15, 2017, New York became the first US city to enact a law giving freelancers the right to a written contract, timely and full payment and protection from retaliation.  The so-called Freelance Isn’t Free Law also established penalties for violations of these rights, including damages payments and legal fees, enforced by authorities

–          It may provide a model for how to address precarious work and slow payment for the rising numbers of self-employed workers in the UK, who made up 15.15 of the workforce in 2017

–          UK freelancers are entitled to claim interest on late payments under the Late Payment Act, introduced in 1998.  But the only way to enforce the fee is through the courts, where the freelancers must be able to provide a contract was in place and that the work was delivered

–          (Prof Note: One thing that really bothers me is late pay.  We must pay our employees and contractors on time and, for us, this is a matter of pride.  However, when paid late, it requires us to provide trade credit.  Not many small- to medium-sized businesses have the ability to provide trade credit and float.)

–          (Prof Note: This is also a reason to charge an initial retainer.  Our view is basically, “no payee, no workee.”  When the retainer is received, if not paid past the retainer, it simply means a reduction in hourly rate.  Note, we have never not been paid, to date.)

–          (Prof Note: Also, we work VERY hard at providing trust with each new relationship.  It may take 1 – 3 days for an ACH/wire to hit the account.  However, we will start work immediately on a promise to pay the retainer.  I will also state, I cannot remember a case where we delivered a result without the initial retainer being received.  Also, the retainer is only initial, then it is monthly billing afterwards, i.e. there needs to be trust.)

 

Answer: 58% of Americans have less than $1,000

30 March 2019 FT — Articles to Read

30 March 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average American Salary per week?

 

United States – Pg. 7

–          …as Mr Trump’s re-election campaign begins to gather pace, it could turn out that the event this week with a more significant impact on the president’s prospects was not the Mueller report but the ominous signals from the bond market

–          The global bond rally came as a range of central banks adopt a dovish stance in the face of slowing growth in Europe and parts of Asia – as well as the US itself

–          The Fed is expecting growth of 2.1% in 2019, weaker than the 2.9% figure recorded for 2018.  Recent US data point to a further slowdown: The Atlanta Fed is projecting annualized growth of 1.5% for the first quarter.  If the bond market is right, the economic prognosis could be on the cusp of getting grimmer at a dangerous time for a president preparing to campaign for re-election

–          ….”extraordinarily strong” correlation between an incumbent president’s margin of victory and household economic confidence, based on surveys going back to 1992

–          The elder Bush failed to win a second term in 1992 after the economy went into a relatively brief recession and consumer sentiment slid

–          Mr Bush accursed Alan Greenspan, then Fed Chairman, of costing him votes by failing to ease policy enough

 

Staggering valuations, equally large losses – Pg. 13

–          Ecommerce group Amazon kept its backers waiting four-and-a-half years after its flotation before posting a small, $5m profit.  By contrast, its losses had grown to $3bn at that point, but that did not hold back its shares

–          Twitter listed in late 2013 but took four years to report its first profit of $91m in the final quarter of 2017.  It shares were down more than 50% by then, however, as investors tired.  Snap, which listed in early 2017, is still waiting for its turn to cheer owners

 

Answer: $900

29 March 2019 FT — Articles to Read

29 March 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average household income?

 

Turkey blows third of reserves to prop up lira ahead of elections – Pg. 1

–          …net foreign reserves, dropped #2.3bn last week…

–          The renewed currency weakness added to this week’s turmoil in Turkish markets, which for investors carries an uncomfortable echo of the lira crisis that scarred the economy last summer

 

Pension funds retain stakes in Chinese security group despite US clampdown – Pg. 1

–          Two of the US’s biggest public pension funds own stakes in Kikvision, a Chinese company that supplies surveillance technology to camps in Xinjiang where Muslims are held

–          The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (Calstrs) and the New York State Teachers’ Retirement System (NYSTRS) continue to hold investments in Hikvision…

–          Hikvision, which is the world’s biggest surveillance company, supplies systems to facilities that Beijing describes as “education centres”, where an estimated 1m Ulghurs are being held

 

Facebook is not our friend, no matter what their adverts say – Pg. 11

–          A study of more than 150,000 young people in 30 countries over a 21-year period found last year that cyberbullying victims were more than twice as likely to self-harm and enact suicidal behavior

–          Together, Google and Facebook control nearly 60% of the digital advertising market in the US, where so many papers have closed that “new deserts” have crept across the country

–          (Prof Note: I have always resisted FaceBook and remain one of the few without an account.  I hear more negative stories than positive ones.)

 

The factors that have set fire to bonds – Pg. 21

–          The 2019 bond market rally is gaining momentum, pushing down yields and lifting the value of the fixed income universe by $1.6tn in value just since the beginning of March

–          Fixed income markets have been buoyant for much of that year, as investors remained fairly downbeat about economic growth, and therefore inflation and the likelihood of central banks raising interest rates

–          The narrative was reinforced by New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday, when it unexpectedly hinted at fourthcoming interest rate cuts and warned that “the global economic outlook has continued to weaken, in particular amongst some of our key trading partners including Australia, Europe and China”

–          The near-euphoria that surrounded the global economy a year ago has been replaced with gloom as markets have become more turbulent and a string of economic releases have come in well below expectations

–          The IMF in January cut its growth forecast for global growth by 0.2% to 3.5%, and there has been little good news since

–          The US yield curve has inverted.  The curve consist of Treasury yields of various maturities, and normally slopes upwards as longer-term US government bond yields are higher than short-term bill yields, to compensate investors for inflation and locking up their money for a long time.  When the curve flattens, it indicates that investors think growth is slowing; when it inverts, it has proved an accurate predictor of downturn

–          The US yield curve inverted last week as investors sharply marked down their expectations for growth, inflation and interest rates, stirring concerns that the post-crisis economic expansion – which this summer will become the longest in history – is heading for a grisly end

 

Answer: $57,652

28 March 2019 FT — Articles to Read

28 March 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average auto loan debt?

 

China industrial profits suffer biggest fall in almost a decade – Pg. 4

–          Profits at large Chinese industrial companies fell at the fastest pace in almost a decade at the start of 2019 in the latest sign of a slowdown for the world’s second-largest economy

–          Uncertainty caused by the US-China trade war, as well as a government crackdown on China’s high levels of corporate debt, led to the country’s economic growth to decline to its slowest annual rate in almost three decades in 2018

 

African economy – Pg. 8

–          Between 2000 and 2014, the stock of Chinese investment in Africa went from 2% of US levels to 55%….China will surpass US levels within a decade

–          Lack of inputs and scarcity of foreign exchange are just two of the obstacles faced by Chinese entrepreneurs.

–          There are cultural obstacles too.  Across the continent, Africans accuse Chinese workers of refusing to integrate

 

Treasuries push higher as homeowners in the US rush to refinance mortgages – Pg. 21

–          Homeowners across the US are rushing to take advantage of lower borrowing costs by refinancing their mortgages, helping in the process to fuel the sharp rally in government bonds

–          Applications to refinance home loans rose about 12% in volume last week from the previous week…

–          …investors who own the debt expecting to be paid a certain coupon for a certain period could soon find the loans fully paid off

–          To guard against that possibility, some big money managers are buying US Treasuries and interest rate swaps in an attempt to offset, at least partially, the  lost income from the mortgages

–          The extent of the US Federal Reserve’s dovishness at its meeting last week caught investors off guard, prompting a rapid repricing of expectations for future interest rate increases.  Treasury yields tumbled lower while weak economic data out of Europe intensified the rally in highly rated government debt

–          Real estate investment trusts that invest in mortgages, along with bank and non-bank mortgage originators, are particularly keep on hedging because they have liabilities that do not fluctuate with interest rates in the same way as their mortgage loans

 

Answer: $31,455/$523/mo