Tag: Prof Note

2 April 2019

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average American Retirement Savings?

 

Saudi Aramco bond sale lifts veil on world’s biggest profit of $111bn – Pg. 1

–          …for the first time disclosed the financial performance it has kept secret for three-quarters of a century, revealing the kingdom’s state oil group generated more profits last year than any other company in the world

–          …produces more than 10% of the world crude, shows the state’s reliance on the producer means it generates less in post-tax profits per barrel than privately owned rivals

–          The government in Riyadh relied on the oil sector for 63% of its total revenue in 2017,…

–          Moody’s and Fitch assigned the company ratings of A1 and A+ respectively but said the government’s reliance on the oil producer to fund its budget acted as a cap on its creditworthiness.  Exxon-Mobil of the US is rated triple A by Moody’s

 

What if you build it and they don’t come? – Pg. 7

–          Property prices are down by at least 25% since 2014; real estate developers are trimming their headcounts and delaying payments to suppliers; parents speak of falling numbers at their children’s schools.  Growth in GDP decelerated to 1.9% last year, the emirate’s slowest rate of expansion since 2010

–          At a time when job cuts are hitting white-collar workers, a priority appears to be boosting population growth among wealthy foreigners by providing expatriates – who make up 92% of the 3.2m population and yet have no right to stay in the emirate if they lose their jobs – with a greater sense of belonging to encourage long-term investment

–          A new law to allow 100% foreign ownership of companies outside existing business parks, which currently exempt the need for a local partner, is another measure designed to improve the commercial climate and cut costs

–          Giving foreigners more rights in what was historically a conservative, local society is unpopular among the 250,000 Emiratis in Dubai

–          Abu Dhabi’s foreign policy has forced Dubai, for the first time, to choose politics over business

–          Dubai is credited with developing one of the region’s most diversified economies, founded on trade and transportation

–          Dubai, including state-related entities, has been paying down debt over the past few years but still owes $122.5bn, equivalent to about 110% of GDP

 

Developers hail ‘game changer’ for India’s commercial property – Pg. 19

–          This week brings a landmark for the industry with the start of trading in India’s first real estate investment trust, an asset class whose cheerleaders say heralds a wave of funding from foreign institutions and domestic savers

–          A debt market crunch late last year has made it tougher for many developers to raise funds from short-term bond issuance and from nonbank financial companies that have themselves been hit by the debt market problems

–          The strong reception for the Embassy Reit, which owns seven business parks and four city-centre office buildings in Bangalore, Pune, Mumbai and Noida (outside Delhi), highlights the divergence between the residential and commercial property segment in India

–          …commercial property has performed strongly with occupied office space growing two or three times over the past decade in hubs such as Bangalore, Mumbai and Delhi (Prof Note: P(Gain) is in the early stages, very early, of negotiating office space in India.  As we build out and expand back-office support systems and infrastructure.  The amount of high-quality, affordable talent in India appears to be endless.)

–          Reits will allow small Indian savers to invest in commercial property for the first time.  Indian families have long concentrated their wealth in real estate with physical assets accounting for about 56% of household savings,…

–          Indian Reit rules state that only commercial property can be included and at least 80% of the assets must be revenue-generating

 

Answer: 42.3% of Americans have less than $10,000.00

1 April 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average American Savings?

 

Belt and Road property boom stalls as Beijing tightens reins – Pg. 1

–          A global real estate boom fueled by China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative has slowed to a crawl, as Beijing seeks to rein in rogue building projects across the globe

–          So far this year, less than $1bn has been invested in overseas commercial property projects by Chinese developers in designated BRI countries.  That puts this year’s total on tract to be far below last year’s figure of about $14bn and marks another sharp drop from the peak of $23.6bn in 2016….

–          Capital flight has been a key concern among Chinese policymakers.  Overseas investments that require companies to sell renminbi and buy dollars are carefully vetted to make sure the investments are in line with governments policy and not just a means of moving money out of the country

–          Some of the biggest private investors in BRI real estate have been forced to begin selling assets

 

Zuckerberg’s ‘mea culpa’ on regulation fails to check backlash against Big Tech – Pg. 1

–          …his recommendations, which included updating rules concerning online political advertising and rolling out a global framework for data protection, failed to win over privacy advocates and politicians

–          A backlash is growing among the public and government officials against big technology companies, driven by privacy and antitrust concerns

 

Biden denies allegations of inappropriate touching – Pg. 3

–          …denied he made inappropriate sexual advances to a female state lawmaker at a 2014 political campaign stop in Nevada

–          (Prof Note: Why does there need to be touching at all?!  Lets get rid of the handshake and go with the slight bow!)

 

Mobilising political leaders and donors – Pg. 9

–          Reflecting on the lessons learnt Mr Gates, 63, stresses the need for data, systems and holding people to account as he seeks to spur policymakers to tackle big global problems

–          But with the adoption of vaccines sluggish, he has had to place greater focus on management, politics and health systems in his efforts to ensure that new products are also widely used

–          He has increasingly focused on Africa, where the population is projected to double by 2050

–          Mr Gates stresses the need to prioritize.  Initially, he concentrated his philanthropy on global health issues and US domestic education.  He has since diversified, adding agriculture, financial inclusion and more recently exploring international education

 

How freelancers are fighting back in the battle against late payments – Pg. 12

–          On May 15, 2017, New York became the first US city to enact a law giving freelancers the right to a written contract, timely and full payment and protection from retaliation.  The so-called Freelance Isn’t Free Law also established penalties for violations of these rights, including damages payments and legal fees, enforced by authorities

–          It may provide a model for how to address precarious work and slow payment for the rising numbers of self-employed workers in the UK, who made up 15.15 of the workforce in 2017

–          UK freelancers are entitled to claim interest on late payments under the Late Payment Act, introduced in 1998.  But the only way to enforce the fee is through the courts, where the freelancers must be able to provide a contract was in place and that the work was delivered

–          (Prof Note: One thing that really bothers me is late pay.  We must pay our employees and contractors on time and, for us, this is a matter of pride.  However, when paid late, it requires us to provide trade credit.  Not many small- to medium-sized businesses have the ability to provide trade credit and float.)

–          (Prof Note: This is also a reason to charge an initial retainer.  Our view is basically, “no payee, no workee.”  When the retainer is received, if not paid past the retainer, it simply means a reduction in hourly rate.  Note, we have never not been paid, to date.)

–          (Prof Note: Also, we work VERY hard at providing trust with each new relationship.  It may take 1 – 3 days for an ACH/wire to hit the account.  However, we will start work immediately on a promise to pay the retainer.  I will also state, I cannot remember a case where we delivered a result without the initial retainer being received.  Also, the retainer is only initial, then it is monthly billing afterwards, i.e. there needs to be trust.)

 

Answer: 58% of Americans have less than $1,000

29 March 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average household income?

 

Turkey blows third of reserves to prop up lira ahead of elections – Pg. 1

–          …net foreign reserves, dropped #2.3bn last week…

–          The renewed currency weakness added to this week’s turmoil in Turkish markets, which for investors carries an uncomfortable echo of the lira crisis that scarred the economy last summer

 

Pension funds retain stakes in Chinese security group despite US clampdown – Pg. 1

–          Two of the US’s biggest public pension funds own stakes in Kikvision, a Chinese company that supplies surveillance technology to camps in Xinjiang where Muslims are held

–          The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (Calstrs) and the New York State Teachers’ Retirement System (NYSTRS) continue to hold investments in Hikvision…

–          Hikvision, which is the world’s biggest surveillance company, supplies systems to facilities that Beijing describes as “education centres”, where an estimated 1m Ulghurs are being held

 

Facebook is not our friend, no matter what their adverts say – Pg. 11

–          A study of more than 150,000 young people in 30 countries over a 21-year period found last year that cyberbullying victims were more than twice as likely to self-harm and enact suicidal behavior

–          Together, Google and Facebook control nearly 60% of the digital advertising market in the US, where so many papers have closed that “new deserts” have crept across the country

–          (Prof Note: I have always resisted FaceBook and remain one of the few without an account.  I hear more negative stories than positive ones.)

 

The factors that have set fire to bonds – Pg. 21

–          The 2019 bond market rally is gaining momentum, pushing down yields and lifting the value of the fixed income universe by $1.6tn in value just since the beginning of March

–          Fixed income markets have been buoyant for much of that year, as investors remained fairly downbeat about economic growth, and therefore inflation and the likelihood of central banks raising interest rates

–          The narrative was reinforced by New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday, when it unexpectedly hinted at fourthcoming interest rate cuts and warned that “the global economic outlook has continued to weaken, in particular amongst some of our key trading partners including Australia, Europe and China”

–          The near-euphoria that surrounded the global economy a year ago has been replaced with gloom as markets have become more turbulent and a string of economic releases have come in well below expectations

–          The IMF in January cut its growth forecast for global growth by 0.2% to 3.5%, and there has been little good news since

–          The US yield curve has inverted.  The curve consist of Treasury yields of various maturities, and normally slopes upwards as longer-term US government bond yields are higher than short-term bill yields, to compensate investors for inflation and locking up their money for a long time.  When the curve flattens, it indicates that investors think growth is slowing; when it inverts, it has proved an accurate predictor of downturn

–          The US yield curve inverted last week as investors sharply marked down their expectations for growth, inflation and interest rates, stirring concerns that the post-crisis economic expansion – which this summer will become the longest in history – is heading for a grisly end

 

Answer: $57,652

27 March 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what is the average mortgage debt?

 

Purdue agrees landmark $270m settlement for role in opioid crisis – Pg. 1

–          Purdue pharma and its owners, the Sackler family, did not admit guilt in the civil settlement

–          …more than 183,000 Americans died from an overdose involving a prescription opioid between 1999 and 2015

–          The company faces more than 1,000 lawsuits over the opioid crisis, including from 35 other states.  The latest wave of litigation over a decade after it was sued by the US justice department over alleged deceptive marketing practice4s, which resulted in a  fine of $634.5m

 

Investing – Pg. 7

–          …DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s

–          It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking.  This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same

–          …DE Shaw is the fourth-highest grossing hedge fund group of all time, having made over $29bn for tis investors since those early days…..

–          It currently employees about 1,300 people, which includes more than 80 Ph.Ds. and 25 International Math Olympiad medal holders

–          Nearly every traditional investment company is scrambling to hire data scientists, programmers and technologists, and turn themselves into human-machine hybrids

 

We must stop fighting over scarce educational spoils – Pg. 9

–          ….non-college-educated people in US cities are employed in substantially less skilled jobs than they were 40 years ago

–          …young people (and their parents) worry that a mediocre college degree might just land them with a lot of debt and a low-skilled job … it is not an irrational fear…

–          …15% of UK university students went to an institution that had a negligible or negative impact on their earnings by age 29

–          …scarcity of routes available to young people who want a better future

–          …list of fixes would include better state schools, more affordable higher education that is less variable in quality, a broader range of alternatives to university that still lead to decent jobs, and a revival of broad-based economic growth that lifts all boats, not just the yachts (Prof Note: this “list of fixes” is the issue, in my opinion.  Everything seems to focus on “jobs”.  Why not focus on business creation and ownership?!  That is where the real $$$ is!  Define success as # of employees, as that translates to # employees * 4 (family #) being fed.)

 

Wall St braced for ‘earnings recession’ – Pg. 12

–          US profit margins are on track to suffer their first fall since 2015, as companies increasingly struggle to pass on the rising costs of labour, transport and raw materials to customers

–          The retreat from the post-crisis peak margins reached in 2018 signals a turn in the profit cycle that has powered the US market’s bull run and undermines an important prop for equity valuations ahead of the upcoming first-quarter reporting season

–          It also marks a reversal from the confidence many executives had expressed last year that customers would continue to absorb rising wage and fright costs in a tight labour market and the impact tariff battles have had on raw material prices

 

Answer: $201,811