Tag: Prof Note

29 January 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what are six expensive purchases that are worth it?

 

Caterpillar feels strain as China slowdown sets back US business – Pg. 1

–        The warnings follow fears raised by succession of companies in the US, Europe and Asia about the widening ramifications of the Chinese slowdown.  Beijing last week revealed its economy had grown at 6.6% – its slowest annual rate in almost three decades

–        Apple shocked the market with a new year warning that its revenues would be lower than expected, in part due to China weakness

 

US shutdown cuts billions from economy – Pg. 2

–        The Federal Government shutdown probably shaved $8bn off US economic activity in the first quarter, after a $3bn reduction in the final quarter of 2018, and the side effects would have been increasingly damaging if the impasse had continued more than five weeks, …

–        …trim the level of real GDP by 0.2% in the first quarter, after being lowered by 0.1% in the final quarter of last year

–        Problems experienced by businesses obtaining federal permits and loans during the shutdown were likely to lead companies to postpone investment and hiring decisions…

–        …US is on course for a $900bn federal budget deficit this year, or 4.2% of GDP, and more than $1tn in year from 2022 (Prof Note: Put simply, this is approximately $2,800/citizen)

–        The yawning gap is partly a result of a $1.5tn tax cut coupled with public spending increases…

–        …growth will slow to 2.3% this year from 3.1% in 2018, as the effects of the tax cuts on business investment wane.  From 2024 to 2029, growth will average 1.8% a year, less than its long-term historical average, primarily because the labour force is set to grow more slowly

–        Federal debt held by the public will reach 78% of GDP by the end of this year, twice its average over the past 50 years.  It is set to hit 93% by 2029, a higher level than at any time since the second world war, and a record 150% by 2049

–        Federal spending on interest payemnts will surpass the entire amount of US defence spending by 2025…

 

S&P Global becomes first foreign agency allowed to rate domestic bonds in China – Pg. 19

–        S&P Global has won approval from Beijing to start scoring domestic bonds, becoming the first foreign credit-ratings agency to gain entry into fast-developing Chinese market

–        Under the terms of its license, S&P is authorized to rate issuers and issuances from financial institutions and corporates, structured finance bonds from foreign issuers, sometimes known as Panda bonds

–        The deregulation comes as China’s economic growth is decelerating to levels not seen in nearly 20 years, spurring concerns over capital flight

–        One barrier to foreign investment is the lack of foreign ratings on domestic bonds.

 

Answer: (1) Education (Prof Note: I have become a bit disenchanted with education as of late.  Quality matters.  ROI on purchase matters (unless independently wealthy).  Quality of professors matter (Ph.D. does NOT determine quality.  For a finance professor, size of balance sheet should be published, i.e. if they cannot make wealth for themselves, how can they possibly demonstrate to students how to build wealth?!)); (2) Travel (Prof Note: My experiences have demonstrated that travel opens one’s mind and heart.  One reason I have not been authoring “Nevis News” is because I have been staying at local establishments on Nevis as Cat Ghaut is renovated.  These have proved so special to the guests that I did not feel right telling their stories.  However, the local establishments have a beauty and friendliness I never known as I rarely leave Cat Ghaut.  It is amazing the people that stay on the island.  One establishment has, literally, a music legend staying for a month (Think “Billy Joel” level but NOT ‘Billy Joel’).  Each night he appears and dines with everyone.  This is a person that can afford to be anywhere and chooses a local Nevisian establishment); (3) A mattress (Prof Note: 1/3 of your life is spent on your back.  Make it a good “1/3”); (4) Clothes that fit well (Prof Note: Being comfortable is more important as I have aged); (5) Services that save you time (Prof Note: It depends on the value of your time and the cost of the service); (6) Health items (Prof Note: You cannot take it with you!)

25 January 2018

 

Question: How many Libors are published daily?

 

Millionaire Ross tells unpaid federal workers using food banks to get loans – Pg. 1

–        The Capital Area Food Bank, which serves the Washington area, said it expected to serve 600,000 more meals this month than in a normal January  because of the shutdown’s impact on government employees

–        (Prof Note: This truly bothers me.  Trump signed the bill providing back pay.  Yes, easy for me to say, but, “Budget!”.  The private sector employees, including me, live with risk of loss of income every day.  We live with loss of income WITHOUT back pay certainty!)

 

Workers in ‘Trump country’ most at risk from automation – Pg. 3

–        …25% of US employment, or 36m jobs, will face a “high” exposure to automation because of the nature of the tasks involved

–        “Heartland” states including Indiana , Kentucky and Iowa with significant manufacturing or agricultural sectors could see some of the biggest changes

–        Major population centres with high levels of educational attainment – including Washington DC, San Jose in Califorinia, New York and Durham-Chapel Hill in North Carolina – are better placed to weather the storm

 

Intercontinental Exchange working on interest rate benchmark to replace Libor – Pg. 19

–        ICE, which also administers the existing London interbank offered rate, is exploring launching a new rate aimed at cash markets such as loans, ….

–        It has been supported by 13 out of the 16 banks that supply daily submissions for Libor

–        The exchange’s move is an attempt to resolve a stand-off between markets and global regulators over a transition away from Libor, which authorities want to happen by the end of 2021

–        Watchdogs are concerned that Libor is not based on real market transactions.  But the benchmark has become so pervasive that it is still central to thousands of derivatives, bonds, credit cards, and loan contracts, with a notional value of around $370tn.  Around $200tn of deals are dollar-based loans and derivatives

–        Regulators would prefer banks and investors to use alternative rates that reflect liquid and active markets, but take-up has been slow, in part because the alternatives are usually based on overnight rates

–        Critics argue they do not sufficiently replicate Libor over a longer period and they are a particular problem for the loan market.  Libor measures the cost of unsecured borrowing between banks for a specific period, usually over one, three and six months

 

Answer: 35 (5 currencies; 7 maturities)

18 January 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what are the best and worst things to do when seeking a retirement spot?

 

Men cash in more than women after MBA – Pg. 3

–        …gender pay gap widened from 3% before candidates started their MBA to 28% five years after graduation

–        Salaries on average rose 63% five years after graduation among women to $152,806.  But their male counterparts averaged a 76% lift during the same period to $211,800

–        Men also led larger teams five years later, averaging 3.3 direct reports, compared with 1.8 among women

–        Gender pay differences partly reflected the industries in which graduates worked, …

–        More women than men worked in finance, but men earned 60% more on average than women

–        The jobs with the greatest gender pay balance were those, such as marketing, where women had already achieved the most leadership positions

–        In the consultancy industry, the gender pay could be explained by the speed with which men reached senior ranks, …

 

Japan economic data in crisis after error – Pg. 4

–        …basic mistake that had caused a mass understatement in national wage data going all the way back to 2004

–        The extend and simplicity of the problem have cast doubt on all of Japan’s most fundamental economic statistics, including GDP, making it hard to judge the state of the business cycle and the impact of government policies

–        Some 20m people have not contributed enough to their unemployment insurance due to the error and will probably have to make up the shortfall, although the underpayment is not large

–        Corrected data for the past few years show wage levels that are higher by 0.3-0.7% depending on the month, although they do not dramatically change the picture of sluggish growth in pay for Japanese workers

 

US Real Estate – Pg. 7

–        In the realm of New York real estate, Stephen Ross reigns as the developer king Donald Trump could only pretend to be

–        His crowning glory is now rising on a site on the western edge of Manhattan that is the biggest in North America – the $25bn Hudson Yards development.  When completed in 2025, it will total 18m sf of state of the art office and residential space – the equivalent of Pittsburgh’s central business district

–        …governed by an expensive and arcane, even clannish, system of building from an earlier era – something Mr Ross is determined to challenge

–        …after complaining about more than $100m in cost overruns over six years, Related opted to do what was once unthinkable: it cut Mr LaBarbera out of the next phase of Hudson Yards and threw open the bidding – including to non-unionized contractors.  It was a declaration of war

–        For Mr LaBarbera there is much more at stake at Hudson Yards than a single office tower.  Even in union-friendly New York, organized labour has been in decline.  Statewide membership in the private construction industry has fallen from 48% in 1983 to 24% last year

–        The 2008 financial crisis appears to have been a pivot point.  With the industry in crisis, developers and contractors turned to less expensive, non-union labour for large residential projects in the city

–        A key point of contention appears to be labourers who perform low-skilled tasks on worksites, such as hauling goods.  They still earn upwards of $70/hour, thanks to Mr LaBarbera’s clout

–        Mr Ross has notched a key victory in his latest fight: in effect splintering the unions by persuading the carpenters to break with Mr LaBarbera and negotiate their own agreement to work at 50 Hudson Yards

–        Chief among them are the city’s 19^th century pay rules, which were designed to prevent newly arrived immigrants and cheap labour from sourthern states from undercutting local tradesmen.  For all public works, contractors are obliged to pay the “prevailing wage”  – a rate unions have negotiated through collective bargaining agreements – if at least 30% of workers for a particular trade in the area are union members

–        The bigger cost, says developers, is not pay but union work rules

 

Microsoft pledges $500m for affordable homes – Pg. 13

–        The move follows widespread complaints by residents of Seattle, which is also home to Amazon, that the presence of tech companies is pushing up house prices, making traffic worse and putting public transport under strain

–        Microsoft has earmarked half of its promised $500m for below-market rate loans to build homes for people who earn up to 60% of the median income of $48,150…

–        Another $225m will be loaned below market rates to build “workforce housing” an developments for families earning between $62,000 and $124,000 in the Eastside area of the city.  The remaining funds will be donated to community projects directed at homelessness and support for low-income residents

 

Answer: (1) Do look for a lower cost of living; (2) Do secure access to good healthcare; (3) Do consider your safety; (4) Do make sure you are close to a grocery store; (5) Do cater to your interests; (6) Do look for states that offer tax breaks for retirees; (7) Do look for states that protect transfer of assets upon death; (8) Do consider the state’s bankruptcy protections; (9) Do factor in transportation; (10) Do plan a trial run (Prof Note: Many expats retire to Nevis.  The best thing one can do is rent for a few years to determine where on the island one desires to live.  There are absolutely “exclusive” groups on Nevis and while there are not zip codes, there is an expat “rating” system depending upon area of home.); (11) Don’t base your decision solely on proximity to family; (12) Don’t forget about property taxes; (13) do not move solely for no income tax; (14) Do not base your decision on a vacation; (15) Do not rule out renting; (16) Do not think short-term; (17) Do not rule out college towns; (18) Do not choose your home first; (19) Do not do it alone; (20) Do not underestimate the benefits of moving  (Prof Note: I have seen expats make huge blunders when retiring to Nevis.  Safety is a concern and I recommend hiring local assistance to better entrench in the society.  If you are hungry at 2:00am there is no 24-hour 7-Eleven.  If you need medical treatment and cannot afford a private jet, it is at least 24 hours away.  The community is small so if there is social tension, it will feel that much worse.  In my opinion, rent for at least two years if planning to move to an entirely new location.)

17 January 2019

 

Question: According to MSN: Money, what are eleven (11) situations in which you probably shouldn’t do your own taxes?

 

Shutdown threatens to spill over into economy – Pg. 3

–        The most immediate economic impact will stem from a reduction in work performed by federal employees.  In 2013 more than 800,000 federal workers were furloughed for 16 days, meaning they were told not to report to work and did not receive any pay.  The BEA estimated that real GDP growth was consequently trimmed by 0.3%

–        …WH economists suggest that the effect of work not being done by 380,000 furloughed federal workers this time around will shave 0.08% off GDP every week the shutdown carries on.  In addition, the loss of work done by federal contractors will trim an additional 0.05% from activity

–        The indirect effects, which are not captured by narrow economic modeling, include potential lost spending by individuals who are missing wages because of the impasse

–        …if the shutdown goes on long enough, questions will start rising over continued delivery of the supplemental nutrition assistance programme, formerly called food stamps, which help more than 40m Americans buy groceries every month

 

BlackRock’s Fink says recession unlikely despite stresses in global economy – Pg. 12

–        Financial markets suffered their worst month since the financial crisis in December, shrinking its assets under management to just under $6tn

–        …Mr Fink saw few signs the global economy was heading for a downturn

–        …BlackRock has not been immune to broader challenges.  Increased market volatility has spurred investor flight from riskier assets, while pressure to reduce fees, and increased regulatory costs have squeezed revenues

–        BlackRock is to cut 500 jobs and included a $60m restructuring charge in its results.  Falling markets and investor nerves dragged total assets under management to $5.98tn from $6.44tn at the end of the third quarter

–        The shares fell 24% last year against 26% across the sector but most analysts still make BlackRock their top pick in a struggling industry

 

Pearson hit by falling sales in US higher education – Pg. 13

–        Pearson, the UK educational publisher, relieved on cost cuts to keep it on track to meet its full-year guidance as declining sales in the US higher education sector weighted on revenues

 

Australia keeps nervous watch on faltering Chinese economy – Pg. 19

–        The Aussie dollar, often seen as a proxy for Chinese growth, bounced this month on hopes of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing, and as China moved to shore up its economy with stimulus measures

–        House prices have already stated to turn in Australia, one of the world’s most expensive property markets.  Prices fell 1.3% in December, the largest monthly fall since 1983, leaving the market down 6.1% last year

–        Household debt, pumped up by mortgages, sits at 120% of GDP – one of the highest levels in the developed world…

–        Growth is already showing signs of stalling

 

Answer: (1) The new tax laws are too overwhelming; (2) You are a high earner; (3) You are self-employed; (4) You itemize a lot of deductions; (5) You are a business owner; (6) You are a new homeowner; (7) You live and work in different states; (8) You are a landlord; (9) You are retiring; (10) You just do not have time; (11) You are afraid of the IRS (Prof Note: I have experience one forensic audit and that was enough to scare me to the professionals forever.  The IRS DOES call (despite the internet saying they do not) to announce an audit, i.e. I learned of mine through a phone call.  The phone call starts like this, “I am Jane/John Doe, special agent, badge #….”.  There is ONLY one correct answer, “I am represented!”  Do NOT play around.  Also, in fairness and transparency to the IRS, my audit was concluded with a favourable outcome, i.e. I felt it was fair and just and have no animosity towards the IRS.)