12 September 2018 FT — Articles to Read

12 September 2018

 

List-Serve Story: Regarding tattoos, I have a story.

 

Many years ago I crossed the Atlantic on a combination cargo/passenger boat.  One of the sailors, who was in his late 40s/early 50s, had a large tattoo down his chest and belly which he had gotten in his youth.  Well, with his belly having expanded in the meantime,  the mermaid looked pregnant!

 

We all laughed every time we saw him shirtless working on the boat.

 

Question: According to MSN:Lifestyle, what are 10 signs everyone thinks you’re insensitive?

 

US-China stand-off poses risk to developing world, warns Lagarde – Pg. 1

–          …comments came as President Donald Trump prepares new US tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports, sharply ratcheting up the trade war with Beijing

–          Thus far, the developing world crisis has focused on Argentina and Turkey, both of which have specific fiscal or political issues that have raised investor concern.  But countries as diverse as South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil have in recent weeks seen outflows, raising the risk of a broader crisis

 

Carney to stay at BoE until 2020 to ease Brexit fears – Pg. 3

–          …scheduled date for Britain’s exit from the bloc of March 29 next year

–          If there is a withdrawal deal between the UK and EU, Britain will have entered a standstill transition period where all EU rules apply domestically and would be engaged in seeking a permanent new trading relationship with the EU

–          One of the early tasks for the new governor would be to help set out Britain’s desired relationship with Brussels on financial services

 

Pushing back on China – Pg. 7

–          …unusual trilateral forum that brings together trade officials from the US, EU and Japan

–          Their mission: to combat the allegedly unfair trading practices by unspecified “third countries”

–          …a potential co-ordinated assault by the Trump administration, EU and Japan on their unique model of Chinese “state capitalism” that has been integral to the country’s economic success over the past 40 years

–          Whether the Chinese leadership is ultimately confronted by the US alone, or by the US, EU and Japan, is important for Beijing, especially as it continues a campaign against risky financial practices that have slowed investment and economic growth.  Yet the Chinese have also begun to conclude that there is much more to Mr Trump’s trade threats than empty bluster

–          Mr Trump is now poised to authorize a third round of tariffs that will take the total value of affected Chinese goods to $250bn – about half of Beijing’s total annual exports to the US

–          Others argue that Mr Trump’s ideal outcome is in fact no deal at all, so he can implement long-term tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US in a bid to bring about a radical overhaul of global supply chains

 

Answer: (1) You don’t pay attention to body language; (2) You raise your voice; (3) You aren’t open to other opinions; (4) You get defensive; (5) You can’t remember people’s names; (6) You don’t think (days) before you speak; (7) You ignore the ‘Golden Rule’; (8) You don’t notice the faces around you; (9) You can’t control your attitude; (10) You don’t act present

11 September 2018 FT — Articles to Read

11 September 2018

 

List-Serve Question: Does anyone know where to find a schedule showing, for new construction, what is useful life broken out by cost category, e.g. HVAC, painting, hardware, etc.  Underwriting depreciation on a residential apartment new construction deal.  All I can find is a general summary put out by the IRS.  (Answer at bottom of email)

 

Question: According to MSN, what are 50 easy things you should do to save money?

 

ECJ to rule on limits of ‘right to be forgotten’ by Google – Pg. 2

–          Europe’s top judges are being asked to decide the limits of the “right to be forgotten” – a person’s ability to demand that internet search engines hide incorrect, out-of-date or potentially embarrassing information about them

–          …European Court of Justice will today consider two cases involving Google: one on the type of information that should be delisted from its index after a search for someone’s name, and the other on whether such a delisting, if agreed to, should apply worldwide

–          The ECJ’s eventual ruling will not only affect Google but all other search engines, and is likely to have implications for social media platforms

–          The cases follow on from a landmark decision in 2014 when a Spaniard, who had his property repossessed and auctioned off in 1998 to recover social security debts, fought to have newspaper articles about the case removed form Google’s search results

–          The ECJ ruled in his favour and said the material should be delisted if it was “inaccurate, inadequate, irrelevant or excessive” – a ruling that created what is commonly known as the right to be forgotten

–          The first concerns whether sensitive personal data, such as political beliefs, health information, criminal records and sexual orientation, should be automatically removed from search engine results on request – regardless of public interest

–          Whether search engines must delete links globally or only in the EU, as is currently the practice, is the second question the ECJ will consider

–          Authorities and courts in Canada, India, Columbia and Brazil, among others, are considering similar right to be forgotten cases but are coming to different conclusions, illustrating the difficulty in establishing a general rule

 

US Drug Epidemic – Pg. 7

–          There are more than 1,000 lawsuits brought by states and local governments in the US alleging the drugmaker’s marketing practices ignited and then fueled the opioid crisis, which claimed more than 42,000 lives in 2016

–          (Prof Note: US Drug Epidemic?!  Last week I had a tooth extracted.  The dentist prescribed Oxy.  I take my prescriptions to Walmart, low cost provider of a commodity, what could go wrong?, and Walmart refuses to fill my prescription.  I am a first time customers and the prescriptions, according to Walmart, provide too much narcotics.  Blood is running down my chin, the novacaine is wearing off, I am becoming desperate .  I say, “ I need my Oxy.”  Walmart says, “No…policy”.  I say, “give me back my prescription.”  Walmart says, “No, you’ll just go to CVS.”  I say, “Damn straight!  Now give me back my prescription!”  Walmart says, “No…policy”.  I say, “Call the police.  I have done nothing wrong.”  Walmart calms down.  I say, “this is insane!  The more I complain the more I look like an addict.  If I do not complain you will not give me my Oxy!”  Walmart says, “quite the conundrum.”  I leave without my Oxy but with my prescription.  How are people getting these pills???!!!  I had a legitimate prescription, blood streaming down my face, and I could not get them!  Arrrggggg….)

 

Fed’s balance sheet shrinking has big implications for banks – Pg. 19

–          …as the reduction in the balance sheet accelerates into 2019, the market is looking for much clearer signs from the Fed on its future framework for steering the economy.  Some analysts worry that the Fed risks shrinking its balance sheet too much

–          The Fed confronts two major, intertwined decisions.  Does it want to stick with its current system for setting interest rates or revert to something similar to the framework it used before the financial crisis?  And how big a balance sheet is it willing to carry in order to execute monetary policy?

–          Fitch said that, after basically stabilizing in 2017, the Fed balance sheet will shrink by around $315bn this year and $437bn in 2019 as it allows assets it has been holding to mature

–          Opting to keep the current system would be necessity mean keeping a lot more reserves in the system than under the pre-crisis toolkit, thus limiting the extent to which the Fed shrinks the assets on its balance sheet

–          This so-called floor system, which the Fed currently uses, involves it setting an interest rate on excess bank reserves and another rate on an overnight reverse repurchase facility to steer market rates.

–          The imposition of regulations requiring banks to hold big buffers of high-quality liquid assets, coupled with changes in banks’ preferences, suggest the sector will want to hold prodigious quantities of reserves for the foreseeable future

–          Another option is to go back to a so-called corridor system, like one used before the crisis, in which a relatively scarce quantity of reserves is held by the banks and the central bank conducts frequent interventions to hold official rates close to its target

 

Answer: (1) Buy off-season; (2) Listen to more music; (3) Maintain your stuff (Prof Note: This also goes for your health.  Repair is generally cheaper than replace.); (4) Learn to say, “No”; (5) Find a hobby; (6) Get enough sleep; (7) Buy refurbished electronics (Prof Note: I will absolutely admit I stay away from refurbished electronics); (8) Play social director (Prof Note: Beers at Buzzys in SoMD are $2.00); (9) Wait 24 hours (Prof Note: Someone told me that when considering purchasing a Porsche, test drive and wait a week.  It takes that long to get the “Porsche Feel” out of your body and head and you can then make a rational decision); (10) Walk more; (11) Travel more; (12) Brown-bag it to work; (13) Eat more veggies; (14) Stretch every morning (Prof Note: What is up with this Yoga craze?!); (15) Live below your means (Prof Note: I cannot stress this enough.  Of course I love McMansions but every expense must have a revenue off-set…rule to live by!); (16) Floss every day (Prof Note: Cost of a tooth removal in Waldorf, MD: $205); (17) Dress up with Craiglist; (18) Get a massage (Prof Note: Look for deals, i.e. $40 or less); (19) Laugh more (Prof Note: No issue if hang’n with me…I truly am hilarious!); (20) Meditate every day; (21) Eat more slowly; (22) Wake up earlier; (23) Gossip more (Prof Note: Whoa…I work hard at not gossiping and work even harder to make every statement positive); (24) Watch less TV (Prof Note: Whoa….I love my tele); (25) Use your credit card less (Prof Note: No, use it more for required purchases..rack up those points); (26) Drive a smaller car; (27) Don’t compare yourself to others (Prof Note: It took me YEARS to achieve this body greatness.  Just love yourself as I love all of you!); (28) Subscribe; (29) Think positive (Prof Note: …and be positive); (30) Plant a garden; (31) Be a good Samaritan; (32) Cherish your friendships; (33) Spend on experiences (Prof Note: But make them experiences worth having, e.g. Gorky Park in the winter!); (34) Volunteer (Prof Note: I have mixed emotions over this.  If you love your job, do your job and donate $$$ for your cause.  It is a more efficient way of being a good Samaritan.  Of course, it is your time so your choice.  Just my opinion.); (35) Spend less on haircuts (Prof Note: I have not had a haircut this year!); (36) Make it yourself; (37) Make a life goals list (Prof Note: Absolutely but ensure the goals are achievable); (38) Read a good novel (Prof Note: I just received new reading glasses.  Oh how I missed reading…I am back at it!); (39) Don’t pay full price; (40) Budget your happiness; (41) Quite the gym; (42) Quit smoking; (43) Use a discount cell service; (44) Entertain more; (45) Spend time with your kids; (46) Trade your books; (47) Use your library; (48) Buy generic; (49) Ask about company benefits; (50) Find free entertainment (Prof Note: Sunsets are free.  There is an adirondack chair on the other side of the fire pit with your name on it for us to watch the sunset over Virginia.  Just like the Price is Right, “Come on down!”  You know where to find me and all are welcome!)

 

List-serve Responses:

 

#1 –

Try this:

https://www.fanniemae.com/content/guide_form/4099f.pdf

#2 –

In my limited experience cost segregation is a challenging topic and one that the irs is particularly sensitive. Best practice would probably be to not mess around and engage a specialist such as kpkg. The accelerated deductions than can be achieved could more than offset the cost of service. If anyone does reply with an off the shelf schedule i would be interested in seeing it, but would be cautious to implement without expert review.

#3-

Marshall Valuation Service

#4 –

sent to legal team…

For it to stick with the IRS you have to actually have a cost segregation study done – which then yields accelerated and bonus depreciation.   Otherwise it’s audit failure

#5 –

I think, but am not positive, that RS Means costing books also include depreciation. I may have a 3+ year old one I can send you, when I’m in front of my computer. Otherwise, you can order current info from below. Hope this helps.

https://www.rsmeans.com/

#6 –

 

Marshall & Swift – Marshall Valuation Service should have a breakdown for depreciation. A commercial appraiser should be able to assist (the copy I have is not digitized and hasn’t been updated in about eight years). I also wonder if a Cost Segregation expert would be able to help. They specialize in tax savings by formulating depreciation.

 

#7 –

 

Just wanted to respond to your comment regarding federal tax depreciation rates for investment properties.  I specialize in fixed asset management for real estate companies with a focus on cost segregation studies (among other ways to take the most taxpayer favorable treatment of your investments).  The IRS recommends specific software that can be utilized to support component values but the tax lives assigned to those assets are from the Internal Revenue Code, Treasury regulations, IRS guidance, and court decisions.  It is always recommended to get assistance from a specialist in this area as the IRS will challenge studies that do not follow the proper methodology.

 

You can read more at the following:

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/cost-segregation-audit-techniques-guide-table-of-contents

#8 –

 

There’s also this: https://www.nachi.org/life-expectancy.htm. NAHB also used to have a similar resource, but it may be behind a pay/membership wall. Latest one that turns up in Google is 2007 (https://www.interstatebrick.com/sites/default/files/library/nahb20study20of20life20expectancy20of20home20components.pdf), which is still probably fine.

 

#9 –

 

https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/mfh/CNA

Here is EVERYTHING you need for this…. review this website, download the spreadsheet (i’ve attached it), utilize the web portal for submission and reports generation… there are 6 training videos.

This was created by KPMG for HUD and embeds all the EULs (estimated useful life) of components of buildings. This is a housing based spreadsheet but you will get the idea. It then allows you to project capital needs into the future of 20 years. If something expires – say a cabinet’s EUL is 10 years, then you use the duration tool to spread it so that you are forecasting replacement around that year – rather than all the cabinets fall off the walls at the precise time… then the financial part of the tool allows you to ‘step’ the interest rates for costs over time projected

10 September 2018 FT — Articles to Read

10 September 2018

 

List-Serve Experience: Just a quick commentary on US Banks and high house prices noted below:

 

  1. I live on the south shore of ——————–  New York.  It is the middle of the middle class.
  2. Houses on my street currently go for $450K – $550K (outrageous but that’s a different discussion).
  3. After years of low construction/renovation activity, several neighbors have built up and out.
  4. An example – A young family down the street have recently demolished their house to the first floor studs, added a big room to the back, and constructed a full second story.  Effectively a new house with 50% more SF.
  5. Their old house was worth at least $450K as it was, and they just spent another $250K (minimum) on the “new” house.  So this young family just “paid” $700K for a new house, on a block that has never had a house sell for more than $550K.
  6. The last time we saw this kind of residential “investment” activity – 2006.

 

Question: According to MSN:Lifestyle, what are 7 ways you can help a loved one with depression, according to experts?

 

Bank scandals spur EU to ramp up fight against cross-border crime – Pg. 1

–          Brussels will seek to toughen the powers of EU agencies to crack down on money laundering and terrorist financing after high-profile scandals shone a light on Europe’s deficiencies in tackling criminal cross-border money flows

–          Many of the EU’s largest banks are directly supervised by the ECB but the policing of antimony laundering rules is not covered by that system

–          Instead, the responsibility for making sure that banks carry out customer background checks and other measures required by EU law lies largely with national watchdogs

–          (Prof Note: Watch ‘Ozark’ on Netflix.  If Breaking Bad did not have you cooking Meth, Ozark will have you laundering funds.)

 

Policymakers call for more firepower to fight next recession – Pg. 2

–          In particular, they stepped up calls to increase the resilience of the banking sector – which helped spawn the crisis a decade ago – amid fears that institutions and individuals could enter the next downturn in a financially vulnerable state

–          …many economists claim central bankers around the world will have to cut borrowing costs back down to near-zero levels when growth eventually stalls

–          Some Fed officials argue that the property involved may be valued too high, raising questions about the quality of the banks’ collateral

–          Mr Summers, now a Harvard University professor, lambasted recent stress tests by the Fed as “comically absurd” for concluding that no big banks would be deficit in capital when tested for their resilience against a brutal slump

 

Why the Fed should care about finance – Pg. 9

–          Central banks can create asset bubbles, of course, but they cannot change the wage-suppressing effects of globalization, technology-driven deflation, and an increasing concentration of corporate power that makes it impossible for workers in rich countries to have any real bargaining power

–          When 10% of the US population owns 84% of the shares, asset price increases do not create inflation, but inequality

–          “Inflation may no longer be the first or best indicator of a tight labour market”…

–          …academic research shows that most recessions since the second world war followed stock market collapses

–          What metrics might the Fed and other central banks look at? I suggest three.  First, the pace of run-up in debt, always the biggest predictor of market trouble.  It has been growing more rapidly than GDP for a number of years.  The growth of financial assets relative to GDP is also near record levels.  Margin debt, ditto

 

Lessons from the bankers who worked at Lehman Brothers – Pg. 10

–          (Prof Note: Read the article especially if younger!  Talks about young people at Lehman and what the collapse meant for their career.  What I will say is that I only work with people with whom I believe.  I am blessed that I am able to pick and choose but am careful that I must believe in the individuals.)

 

Wall Street cuts profit outlook for US retailers – Pg. 16

–          Projected profits for the current quarter have been reduced for 52 – almost three-fifths – of the 89 companies in S&P’s retail index over the past three months, …

–          After months of store closures, job losses and bankruptcies, several listed retailers are now producing some of their best financial results in a decade, spurring hopes that well-run, bricks-and-mortar chains can succeed in the age of Amazon (Prof Note: I have found that if you do not know what you want Amazon is overwhelming.  I then order directly from a merchant out of frustration)

–          The steepest cuts have been endured by companies that are seen to be struggling, such as department store operator JC Penny and Victoria’s Secret- owner L Brands

 

Answer: (1) Remember four important, undeniable facts, i.e. (a) Your loved one’s illness is not your fault (or your loved one’s fault), (b) You can’t make your loved one well, but you can offer support, understanding, and hope, (c) Each person experiences a mood disorder differently, with different symptoms, and (d) the best way to find out what your loved one needs from you is by asking direct questions; (2) Don’t try to fix your loved one’s problem on your own; (3) Don’t ask them to “snap out of it”; (4) Learn the symptoms of depression; (5) Practice the following sayings: (a) “I’m here for you.”, (b) “I care”, (c) “I may not understand your pain, but I can offer my support”, (d) You are a worthwhile person and you mean a lot to me”, (e) “Your brain mislaying to you right now, and tha tis part of your illness”, (f) “Don’t give up.  You can get through this.”; (6) Encourage treatment; (7) Take care of yourself (Prof Note: I have ZERO training in this area so the following are just my life experiences…Location matters with happiness.  The warm sun on one’s cheek is happiness.  Also, this is just my advice, NEVER say you understand another’s pain.  Let them own it.  You can understand they are struggling and you are there to offer support.  I remember an RBC bank rep telling me they understood my pain, as they were being combative with regard to my family situation, and I am still amazed at the fury I unleashed.  Words matter.  One of my favourite expressions, “Words are like bullets, you cannot call them back.”  Be careful.)

8 September 2018 FT — Articles to Read

8 September 2018

 

List-Serve Question: Does anyone know where to find a schedule showing, for new construction, what is useful life broken out by cost category, e.g. HVAC, painting, hardware, etc.  Underwriting depreciation on a residential apartment new construction deal.  All I can find is a general summary put out by the IRS.

 

Question: What percentage of persons have tattoos, i.e. are “inked”, between the ages of 18 and 35?

 

Surge in US wage growth keeps Fed on track for two more rate rises this year – Pg. 1

–          US wages have risen at their quickest pace in nine years as employers boosted pay to attract and retain workers in a tightening labour market

–          Average hourly earnings rose 2.9% in August from a year ago, the fastest rate since June 2009…

–          The data also further strengthened the dollar, which jumped 0.3% after the figures were released

–          The strengthening US currency has been one of the leading causes of the rising jitters in emerging markets, which have seen sharp sell-offs as investors question whether they can pay back billions in dollar-denominated debt (Prof Note: Can we all say, “Tesobonos”?)

–          Yesterday’s figures showed the labour market added 201,000 jobs last month, from a revised 147,000 in July, adding a record-breaking streak of uninterrupted job growth

 

Emerging Markets – Pg. 5

–          Argentina’s extreme market stress raises multiple issues.  The first is financial: does it represent the beginning of an emerging market collapse of a like not seen since a series of crises rolled from Russia to Asia to South America at the end of last century?

–          The second is philosophical: if Mr Macri’s technocratic government, which heads the G20 and has followed economic orthodoxy while also enjoying full international support, cannot ride out fickle markets, who can?

–          The BI, the central bank’s central bank, warned in June of “financial vulnerabilities [that] have been building up, in their usual gradual and persistent way”

–          The most obvious symptom is the doubling since 2008 of dollar loans to emerging markets to $3.6tn

–          …as US interest rates rise and the dollar strengthens, those easy-money debts have become harder to service, especially for countries with large current account deficits – notably Argentina, Turkey and South Africa

–          US protectionism has hurt Asian countries, whose current account surpluses might otherwise protect them from rising rates.  But the US threat of $200bn – worth of tariffs against China has sent them into a tailspin too

–          The worst drought in three decades shrank Argentina’s key agricultural sector by half this year.  Tensions in the Middle East have also pushed up oil prices, making Argentine energy imports more expensive

–          Scarred by eight debt defaults, two bouts of hyperinflation, 20 IMF-supported programmes in 60 years and multiple currency crises, they no longer have faith in the peso, which has lost more than half its value this year

 

Corporate debt funds hit by jolt of outflows – Pg. 11

–          Investors yanked more money out of corporate debt last week, withdrawing the most out of investment grade bond funds in nearly three months and extending this year’s outflows from junk bond vehicles….

–          After years of steady returns and roaring inflows, US corporate debt has lost 2.1% this year, ….

 

Answer: 47% (Aye Caramba!)