14 August 2018 FT — Articles to Read

14 August 2018

 

Question: According to MSN:Money, what are four (4) mistakes millennials are making?

 

Turkey central bank fails to prop up lira – Pg. 2

–          The Turkish lira fell further yesterday despite cental bank moves to shore up the system…

–          The currency slid 11% to a record low of TL7.2362 against the US dollar in Asia trading, before rallying to take about 8% down

–          The lira has been rocked by a dispute between Ankara and Washington which has added to concerns about Turkey’s high inflation and hits hefty current account deficit, as well as corporates’ foreign currency debt and the direction of economic policy under Mr Erdogan

–          The currency has lost 24% of its value against the dollar since August 6, and 46% so far this year

 

US scrambles to curb spread of 3D-printed guns after blueprint posted online – Pg. 4

–          US lawmakers are grappling with how to regulate 3D-printed guns and other home-made firearms, as cheap technology opens a new front in the country’s war over gun control

–          A California law to force the registration of home-made firearms went into force this summer…

–          Defense Distributed has turned its focus on the market for “ghost guns”, the term for an operational and unregistered firearm made from assembled parts.  It created a spin-off, Ghost Gunner, selling computer-automated machine tools that allow its owner to turn $700 worth of lawfully-bought, untraceable parts into an AR-15 assault rifle

–          The business aims to exploit US laws that consider only a completed “lower receiver” to be a firearm while parts such as barrels, stocks and magazines are unregulated accessories.  Hobbyists can buy complete AR-15 kits and 10-packs of unfinished receivers from websites and apply the finishing touches

–          (Prof Note: I just wonder if the only way to address is through education?  Legalize, regulate and educate!)

 

Answer: (1) Not preparing for the unexpected; (2) Avoiding credit; (3) Not saving enough for retirement; (4) Spending frivolously (Prof Note: I see so many iced coffee drinks and Starbucks in the classroom.  GWU’s IT department now knows me well as I discovered free coffee in their offices which is on the same floor at my classroom, i.e. I do not to use departmental coffee on the other side of the building three floors up)

13 August 2018 FT — Articles to Read

13 August 2018

 

List-Serve Comment (Divorce) – Regarding financial settlement when separating from spouse or partner: In addition to all of the above, I would recommend that a couple talk openly before they move in together.  It is a difficult conversation, but perhaps a good one to test the relationship up front.  List each other’s assets and liabilities and agree on how they would be dealt with “in case our relationship does not work out.”  This is especially important if there is a significant difference between the individuals’ career moves away from the current town, spending priorities (house, cars, clothes, vacations, fishing gear, …), assets, liabilities and current + future earnings streams.  I can imagine how hard it is to engage in such a conversation – we did not discuss it in our 20s, but we got lucky because we are still married after four decades, having overcome some big spending and savings decision differences.

I am speaking from having observed other people’s misery.

 

But, since most millennials who are getting married/live together are mostly in their 30s and 40s now, they bring much more into the union: assets, liabilities, children, established careers, better defined aspirations, …  In cases of very different financial profiles, a detailed prenuptial agreement should help.  Again, if someone asked me to do that all those years ago, I would have balked because when you are in love, you hate to spoil your feelings by parsing out potential separation of assets and liabilities.  Looking back, it helped that our aspirations and assets/liabilities/future incomes balanced out (I did not say they were equal – they balanced out).

 

I would like to add that, both my husband and I are saddened by the current trend in the western world where young people live together but are not getting married.  A trial living together arrangement is OK short term for some people to see if you are compatible.  From the limited sample of my relatives’ and friends’ children in their 30s and 40s, I can say that it is mostly the men who do not want to be married, even when they have children.  The women in those situations generally feel that, while they would prefer to be married, the current situation is the best they can get.  That means that these women feel somewhat insecure, and that has a negative impact on their children.

 

Question: According to MSN:Money, what are five habits that will prevent you from getting rich?

 

Moscow plans to cut down on US assets – Pg. 2

–        Russia is trying to reduce its dependence on the dollar by cutting US securities holdings and settling more trade payments in other currencies

–        …Russia’s holdings fell from $96bn to just under $15bn…

 

US profit margins look close to peak – Pg. 13

–        Profit margins at US companies have risen to their highest level in at least a decade, raising questions over whether the most recent quarterly results are at a peak

–        Companies have been shaving costs for years, while more recently they have enjoyed the benefits of the corporate tax cut agreed in December.  Revenues in the second quarter also grew by nearly 10% year on year, the biggest rise since 2011

–        The US dollar was up 4.6% in the year to date against a basket of other currencies

–        Oil prices were up 8.9% in the same period

 

Record caseload for UK financial regulator – Pg. 14

–        The caseload includes 86 suspected financial crime and another 75 of suspected insider dealing, which the FCA has the power to criminally prosecute

–        Under new accountability rules called the Senior Managers and Certification Regime, the FCA frequently opens a parallel case into top brass with particular responsibility for an issue under investigation.  The increase in cases is also due to an explicitly push to open more investigations and sooner

 

Answer: (1) Not following a budget (Prof Note: Make a plan and stick to it!  Identify costs in two categories, i.e. Fixed and variable.  Adjust variable in real time to hit plan); (2) Living paycheck to paycheck (Prof Note: It is tough but consider lower one’s standard of living.  Perhaps not living on Foxhall but rather Main Street.  I have personally reviewed a lot of personal balance sheets for Foxhall residences and they are more levered than one may think!); (3) Giving to impulse buys (Prof Note: A large coke at McDonalds is $1.06.  The coke at the register at most stores is smaller and $1.75.  Be aware.); (4) Borrowing too much (Prof Note: Be care how you borrow and for what reasons.  Is there a revenue off set?  Every loan I have is paid by a third-party, i.e. there is a revenue off set.  Be careful how you borrow, the amounts, and structure.); (5) Choosing only safe investments (Prof Note: This really depends upon where you are age wise and risk tolerances.  If you are going to me in ultra safe investments, then consider more side hustles.)

11 August 2018 FT — Articles to Read

11 August 2018

 

Question: According to MSN:Money, what are 6 money mistakes that can lead to divorce?

 

China’s trade war with US poses threat to global oil demand, says energy body – Pg. 1

–        A growing US-China trade spat could hurt oil demand growth this year and next if the global economy takes a hit…

–        Saudia Arabia and Russia have been raising oil output in advance of November but that has spurred fears that global spare capacity is at very low levesl

–        The IEA said Saudi Arabia’s production was just below 10.4m b/d, a fall from June and in line with the lower numbers circulated by Saudi officials in the market

 

US core inflation records fastest rate of increase in a decade – Pg. 2

–        Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices and is closely followed by the Fed, rose at a year-on-year pace of 2.4% in July, up from 2.3% in June.  That is the fastest annual pace of core inflation since September 2008, and topped market forecasts for 2.3%

–        Growth in headline consumer prices held steady at 2.9% year on year in July from a year ago, …

–        The Fed has raised interest rates twice this year, and is expected next month to pull the trigger on the first of two additional rate rises forecast for the remainder of 2018

 

Equities – Pg. 5

–        …on August 22, the US stock market will officially have enjoyed its longest-ever bull run

–        US equities have returned more than 400% over the nine years since the financial crisis nadir in March 2009

–        The recent resilience of US stocks might come as something of a surprise.  After all, there are myriad reasons to worry: fears of a trade war; rising US interest rates; political uncertainty around US midterm elections in November; a slowdown in Europe; and questions about the growth prospects of the technology behemoths that have helped power the US equity rally

–        The S&P 500 has clawed back almost all of this spring’s losses and is once again close to a record high.  There are three major, interlinked factors that have helped assuage concerns and propelled US stocks higher again: strong-economic growth, dazzling corporate earnings and a wave of share buybacks

–        US GDP expanded 4.1% in the second quarter, the fastest rate of growth since 2014, and swingeing tax cuts have juiced up corporate profits

–        Almost four-fifths of S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations in the second quarter – …

–        The Federal Reserve has raised US interest rates seven times since 2015, and another two increases are penciled in this year.  At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet shrinkage is accelerating.

–        With 90% of companies having reported, US corporate earnings rose 24.6% year on year in the second quarter.  That is the second-biggest gain in nearly eight years after the 24.8% rise in the first quarter,…

–        Profit margins are clocking in at a record 11.8%, and top-line sales growth – which is not flattered by a lower corporate tax – has also been strong.  Revenues for S&P 500 companies rose 9.9% in the three months through June, the best showing since 2011.  Some72% of companies surpassed revenue forecasts, above the five-year average of 58%

–        …Robert Shiller…argues that corporate earnings have been goosed by the Trump administration’s “spending spree economy” rather than a fundamental improvement.  Meanwhile, investors are ignoring the elephant in the White House

 

Answer: (1) Keepings bank accounts separate; (2) Using separate credit cards; (3) Waiting too long to talk about money; (4) Not talking about money at all; (5) Arguing about money too often ; (6) Keeping financial secrets (Prof Note: Transparency in finances is critical.  Perhaps set a discretionary monthly allowance for each of you.  Over which $$$ must be discussed.  Do not consider it a permission issue but rather a committee approval requirement which we all face in our positions/jobs/corporations)

10 August 2018 FT — Articles to Read

10 August 2018

 

Question: According to MSN:Money, the article How my husband’s layoff changed the way we spend money, references what methods?

 

ECB fears rise of protectionist measures hitting eurozone growth – Pg. 2

–        The ECB has warned that US tariffs are in danger of reaching their highest levels for half a century as its fears mount over the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policy on Eurozone growth

–        The US introduced its first tariffs on imports from china on July 6.  Since then, the world’s two largest economies have unveiled tit-for-tat measures that cover $100bn in bilateral trade.

–        The central bank indicated it was especially worried that a US investigation into whether it should impose tariffs on imports of cars and car parts would lead to new barriers to trade

 

Argentine senators throw out bill to legalize abortion in strongly Catholic country – Pg. 4

–        Argentina’s Senate rejected a bill to legalize abortion yesterday, the biggest nation in largely Catholic Latin America to take on the issue

–        The bill, which narrowly passed the lower house in June, called for legalizing the termination of a pregnancy in the first 14 weeks.  Under current law, abortion is allowed only in cases of rape or if the woman’s health is in peril

–        In Latin America, elective abortions are allowed only in Cuba, Guyana, Mexico City and Uruguay, while they are banned in the Domincan Republic

–        (Prof Note: I await the stance of the US Supreme Court on abortion in the U.S. with the new pick.)

 

End of pension fund tax break looms over Treasuries market and long-dated buying – Pg. 17

–        US Treasury traders are bracing for the end of a tax break that they say has encouraged companies to funnel billions of dollars into their pension funds and helped keep a lid on long-term interest rates

–        Companies have raced to top up their pensions ahead of the expiry of the tax break on September 15 and their pension funds have in turn been significant buyers of long-dated Treasuries

–        Demand for long-term Treasuries has kept yields low, even as short-term rates have risen, leading to a flat yield curve and intense debate over what that signals for the economy

–        Under reforms introduced at the end of last year, the US cut the corporate tax rate from 35$ to 21% but companies have been allowed to deduct pension contributions at the old, higher rate for most of this year.  The grace period was designed to encourage companies to deal with pension fund deficits

–        The longest maturity Treasury bond lasting 30 years has seen its yield rise by less than shorter dated yields this year, flattening the yield curve and raising fears of a slowdown in the economy.  Short-dated yields have risen above longer dated yields before every US recession of the past 50 years

 

Answer: (1) You don’t need nearly as much as you think you do; (2) ‘Thrifty’ became our new slogan; (3) Coupons became our best friend